While over 90% of solar cell output today is silicon based, a number of growing startups, plus some companies that have been in the business for a long time are now starting to promote thin film as the saviour of the industry (no silicon feedstock shortage issues) in many ways.
Whereas thinfilm cannot be beat for cost per watt of module, the issue lies in the fact that thick film TODAY is costing more and more to make. That is primarily due to the nature of the process but also the cost of spot silicon feedstock today (over $60 per kilo!).
The issue also brings to the forefront the issue of “real world performance”. Every test ever done shows that thin film amorphous gives up to 25% more power per “rated watt” in real-life conditions vs. crystalline. This becomes much more evident when you are being rewarded for the amount of power feeding back into the grid than when there is no such measure. A recent survey in California proved that people don’t install solar systems to save energy, they do it to save money! So the faster they turn back the meter, the happier they are.
The industry is going to go through radical change in the next two years. Disruptive new thin film technologies combined with lower silicon based cells, combined with increased worldwide demand is going to make the solar industry the next BIG THING. Being a part of it is so exciting. You get up each day knowing you affect the world in a good way. The question is only which horse to ride and that simply depends on which race you are in. Like so many other industries, we’ll have our Macs and PCs, our Ferrari-branded Acers and our Dells. The issue is not whether there is opportunity for thinfilm to grow as a percentage, but only how many of the races it will win.
Sass