The victims list has begun… Solyndra filing for bankruptcy despite a large pipeline, and DOE guarantees…
Why? Because while China was pumping tons of money into known process manufacturing, US counterparts, in an attempt to find distinction, have been running around creating new processes and then asking for the market and government to support them during a time of glut. While that might be OK in a shortage, its not OK when there is too much supply.
So the chinese were busy taking costs out of the processes that were well known, while US makers are scratching their heads trying to create distinctions. The disaster of Solyndra will repeat itself unless the US government turns its money into the areas where there can be significant distinction and value creation. Its also clear that thin film below 10% is dead-on-arrival. There’s no question that it can be kept alive with intern customers and PPAs that are rich enough, yet their future will be tenuous and relatively small in scale. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, except that eventually their business model will be challenged when what they create can be acquired for so much less.
I remember facing such dilemnas when we bought a thinfilm factory in the UK. The consumer group wanted us to design the best products with the best solar cells, and effectively remain technology agnostic. The thinfilm group wanted us to go out and promote their output to guarantee the jobs in the factory. Eventually, the company died because it had two heads and not enough legs.
History repeats itself if you don’t learn from it.