November 23, 2006
The CIS race just got racier...
The race in the new exotic thin films just got more interesting with Qcells investing in a Swedish company which will produce CIGS based thin film cells.
It shows that the race in solar power thin film will be between amorphous (and micromorph configurations of amorphous) and CIS/CIGS-based cell producers.
While amorphous makers have been proving for decades that they can produce repetitively with controlled and known costs, the CIS/CIGS producers have had a much harder time understanding their cost bases, while also dealing with more exotic components of their "recipes" thus making it harder to predict costs down the road.
Typically, CIGS/CIS based cells have higher STC efficiencies than Amorphous-silicon based ones. However amorphous solar power is lower costing to produce. So you have even within the thin film world, a "horses for courses" approach which must be taken prior to determining which technology is right for which application.
It just goes to show that our microchip solar world just keeps getting more and more interesting. From nanocrystalline to micromorph, we are about to live in a radically changed environment within the next 12 months. Hang on to your solar hats...
Sass
PS. My absence from the blogosphere for the past two weeks was primarily due to the integration of a number of new key members of our team which will be announced shortly as per SEC regulations (for those in the executive level). Oh what a feeling...
Posted by sass at 05:24 PM | Comments (3)
October 08, 2006
Patent Plays
As solar technologies evolve, I expect to see a greater number of applied patents in this field, like in any other. ICP's "DNA" includes innovation at the core of our strategy and thus we have begun to collect a number of patents (issued and applied) in numerous major markets where we intend on marketing our innovations.
However this blog entry by legal counsel at Sun Microsystems is concerning for the "patent playing field" in the USA. It reminds me of the time when ICP was not solely developing solar products back in mid-90s when we had a brief stint with voice recording technology. We had developed an innovative talking picture frame which was immediately picked up by the Sharper Image. It had been designed by none other than Ralph Baer, Inventor of the Sega Laser Gun and numerous other "talking" products. Suddenly, and out of the blue, we received letters asking for injunctions against us and Sharper Image by no less than a legal firm which had been incorporated solely for the purpose of chasing companies for patent rewards.
As noted in the SUN blog entry, I find this to be a perversion of the patent system. When an entire town makes it business to make it easy to sue american (or not) corporations for the purpose of collecting juicy awards in patent cases, you then have the term "free market" taken to its extreme.
It costs money to become a politician. It costs money to develop products. It costs money for most everything we do in life. So why would it not cost money to sue someone? This comes back to the "business of law". When we permit lawyers to run on percentages, they simply seek the easiest money path. Salesmen on commission will seek the path of least resistance to a sale. Unless governed by strict corporate policies, true salesmen will sell, sell ,sell without regard for things such as "do we have the stock?", "is the line being promoted profitable to the company", etc.. So in fact, lawyers without limits are partly creating this issue and that may be where we should start in regulating the patent law industry.
Sass
Posted by sass at 10:27 AM | Comments (1)
August 28, 2006
Its a bird, its a plane, no its a flying solar cell!
Now look who's getting big time in to solar..BOEING
BOEING is starting with a rather modest goal and intends on getting big time into the solar game. Hold onto yourwings, one day they may be made of solar cells and we'll all travel in noiseless planes powered by solar like this one, powered by Boeing!
Following name brands like Sharp, Kyocera, BP, Fuji, Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Honda, Samsung, GE (ah, finally an american brand!), you can see how the game of solar is getting more and more interesting by the day! So how do we little creatures survive in a world dominated by giants; well like a school of fish, we can if we just take the crumbs, but once you compete with the shark for the main meal, you'd better be ready for a bloody battle...
Soaring Sass
Posted by sass at 11:29 PM | Comments (0)
June 28, 2006
BP Solar goes Nano...
Just as I'm writing that the big guys better get in on the game of disruptive solar technology, here comes an announcement from BP Solar on that very topic that they are getting involved in radically new ways of creating solar cells.
Though these are long term projects, the fact that a giant currently using standard wafer/silicon ingot technology is looking at this looks to me a radical departure from the conventional status quo in such large corporations.
So for now, BP Solar simply pours millions into research with competing disruptive technologies and then once the race parameters are more drawn out, determines whether to continue, drop or scale up its initiative. The maturing of an industry causes some interesting opportunities. By maturity, I hardly mean the product lifecycle, rather that some very serious investments are now appearing in solar in multiple amounts of the scales we've seen in the past decade.
Many predicted that while information was the disruptive industry of the 1900's, energy will be the one in the 2000's. So far, they look right to me!
Sass
Posted by sass at 12:31 AM | Comments (0)
June 23, 2006
Constructive Solar Disruptives
A few weeks ago, I blogged about ATS Automation's challenges in bringing "disruptive" technology to the solar arena. The one they are trying to productionize is a spheral solar technology which was originally created by Texas Instruments in the 1980's.
This week another announcement in the technology disruption arena promises to be far greater in scope and disruption to the solar industry as we know it. Nanosolar announced the financing for a 430Megawatt facility with US$100million. There are several things which make this annoucement extremely critical for the solar industry.
First, an investment of only $0.25 per watt produced is far below the current industry investments required to produce that much solar capacity. This means that the capitalization figure included in any costing is far less.
Second, they use a CIGS process. This has been known to be stable under extreme conditions.
Third, the cost per watt will be significantly below the crystalline players because of the roll-to-roll printing process utilized.
Fourth, we're not talking about a 20MW disruption (which is basically none at all) to the industry. We're looking at nearly half a gigawatt of new capacity. That is more than the entire industry produced just a few short years ago!
So it looks like someone is about to cause a major shift in how the industry is developing. Now what happens when you have giants like Kyocera, Solarworld, Sharp, Sanyo, BP etc.. in an industry with hundreds of millions of dollars invested in their own processes and are now challenged by a newcomer like this? Two things: crush them or buy them. Option B only occurs if Option A is not possible.
The lay of the land is about to get interesting for smaller players who will have to be eaten up or move aside. The stakes in the game has just been moved up a notch...
Sass
Posted by sass at 08:59 AM | Comments (0)
June 12, 2006
Exotic Solar Entries
There was a day when you could simply say that thin film technology was "amorphous" in its composition. And yet in recent years ,many new combinations appeared such as CIGS, CdTE, CIS.
Of these "exotic" thin films, only CdTE seems to have been able to make itself work affordably, primarily by First Solar in the USA. Shell never grew its CIS plant and the only CIGS really on the market in any decent way is the flexible kind meant for specialty applications.
Amorphous silicon has stayed quite steady for the better of thirty years and yet now is about to change as well. We see Applied Films and Unaxis pressing their "micromorph" equipment solutions, while others like Kaneka have developed their own inhouse process and are already putting them out onto the market. These modules give the best of both worlds in terms of light exposure. The benefits of how well amorphous silicon captures low daylight with the stability factor of crystalline. In layman terms, the micromorph is a combination technology which uses a bit of crystalline and amorphous silicon in its composition.
The benefit of using an amorphous silicon backbone is that the technology and its profitable manufacturability are already quite proven. An with numbers showing a 10% stable rating, the panels will now be able to reach 100W stable (with known technology) within a couple of years. With a labor, materials and utilities cost of under US$0.70 per watt, you can then see why there are predictions that thinfilm will take 20% of the market by 2010.
This also creates the need for equipment makers to realize that "5MW" increments are no longer suitable for today's new environment. Whereas people used to shy away from building more than 5MW because the market had not quite accepted amorphous as a viable alternative in the grid (largest chunk of market) sector, that thinking no longer applies today. It means that platforms that build 20MW as a minimum are likely to be the most economical in the future.
With the entry of new exotic thin films from all over (Japan, Germany, USA, South Africa, Switzerland) we are going to see a revolution in the industry and finally a lot more momentum towards "real world ratings" than ever before as the larger thin film players vie for a level playing field when it comes to measuring solar performance.
As someone who has been in thinfilm for over 18 years, I'm excited by this prospect of a rush of new capacity in this area. Is it a threat to my company, ICP Solar? Frankly, I see this as a challenge in which we must make the right decisions to assure our success in the future.
Sass
Posted by sass at 06:23 AM | Comments (0)
May 31, 2006
Destructive Solar Disruptive
Ouch! is what we could hear ATS Automation shareholders across the world say when they heard of the over $60million write-down for investments in the Spheral Solar Technology they bought from OPG a few years ago. In the same release, they spoke of further investments into the Photowatt facility in France which is working at full capacity producing standard poly cells.
Spheral technology was originally developed by Texas Instruments and had been mothballed until a manager at ATS decided it was their ticket to success in Canada to develop and manufacture a new disruptive technology which would use a fraction of the silicon required. He definitely had foresight in terms of the shortage of polysilicon we are faced with today, yet they all vastly underestimated the difficulties in putting this technology into a "profitably reproduceable format".
Note the first word in the quotes.."profitably". Herein lies the essence of the challenge for any disruptive technology that will come into the solar arena. There are many new technologies that promise better low light power, better full light power, better shaded performance, etc. and in the labs, researchers are able to prove reproduceability day in and day out in small sections. The real key is that if the production methodology is not proven out, then you have a huge potential risk. In the case of Spheral, NOBODY had ever produced it properly. The japanese tried and failed.
I can understand ATS Automation thinking that given its long history in production automation, that it could do what it took to make the process work. However I suspect that they have been so aggressive with the writedown because they frankly no longer believe it can work. Down the tubes goes about $20M of Canadian government funding with this promised project.
Oh well, I guess we'll have to wait for another of the promising technologies to really undo the damage to the solar market that the polysilicon market is creating.
I am not happy that ATS is making these announcements. It doesn't look good on them nor on the Canadian industry or taxpayers. I do not revel in the pains of others (even competitors), yet it is a lesson that we need to learn from moving forward. It will surely also make venture capital partners wake up to the risks of investing in such disruptive technologies in the future.
Sass
Posted by sass at 06:53 AM | Comments (4)
April 10, 2006
Renewable Robots
The amazing thing about what's going on in the solar industry is that all kinds of new applications are surfacing, and will continue to surface for two main reasons: people have discovered that solar WORKS as a power renewing source and new technologies will soon emerge to permit new recharging capabilities neverbefore thought of.
In the case of the solar robot, aka "Cool Robot", this device treks across the arctic being recharged by solar cells on all four sides (given the angle of sun it makes perfect sense to put them on the sides as well). It is an autonomous robot which is designed for summer use in the Antarctica and Greenland. While the army is obviously testing this to permit autonomous drones to lead the next invasions and be repowered each time the sun shines (I can now imagine the enemy developing solar blankets that can be thrown over the solar drones as a response!) the fact remains that from the armed forces experiments can come so many other great uses for such a device. Moving telemetry, weather stations, etc, could all be recharged and moving at the same time.
Posted by sass at 05:44 PM | Comments (0)
March 21, 2006
Sunsei Soars in Spring...
If the fingers are doing the walking, the wallets are doing the talking. I cannot believe the uptake in sales per store with the new branding, products and word-of-mouth PR that is spreading like wildfire about SunseiTM.
Its like something I've never seen before. The quality of the products, the support and the branding efforts across several levels, are all having a tremendous effect (in some cases TOO positive). As with the grid market where customers are now paying "reservation fees" just to have manufacturers keep their orders ahead of others, we are finding customers now willing to "prepay" months ahead just to bring stock in early so as to ensure availability. Those that have provided forecasts obviously took care in such a market situation but who was to know this would happen so quickly!
I must say that our team is also pulling off miracles and our clients are also being patient with us. Its also interesting that while some merchants have chosen to offer many of the same models they listed three years ago, those that have moved forward to newer more efficient, more attractive and better supported products are seeing the greater effects of a more educated consumer. People actually KNOW about degradation, shading, balance of system components far more than they use to. In some ways, the trade buyers have some catching up to do with their own consumers. All points to a tremendous year for anyone in solar, even for those offering lesser products, simply due to the demand, supply, awareness and every other factor under the sun.
Sass
Posted by sass at 09:01 PM | Comments (0)
March 15, 2006
Thin Film Future Thoughts (TFFT)...
While over 90% of solar cell output today is silicon based, a number of growing startups, plus some companies that have been in the business for a long time are now starting to promote thin film as the saviour of the industry (no silicon feedstock shortage issues) in many ways.
Whereas thinfilm cannot be beat for cost per watt of module, the issue lies in the fact that thick film TODAY is costing more and more to make. That is primarily due to the nature of the process but also the cost of spot silicon feedstock today (over $60 per kilo!).
The issue also brings to the forefront the issue of "real world performance". Every test ever done shows that thin film amorphous gives up to 25% more power per "rated watt" in real-life conditions vs. crystalline. This becomes much more evident when you are being rewarded for the amount of power feeding back into the grid than when there is no such measure. A recent survey in California proved that people don't install solar systems to save energy, they do it to save money! So the faster they turn back the meter, the happier they are.
The industry is going to go through radical change in the next two years. Disruptive new thin film technologies combined with lower silicon based cells, combined with increased worldwide demand is going to make the solar industry the next BIG THING. Being a part of it is so exciting. You get up each day knowing you affect the world in a good way. The question is only which horse to ride and that simply depends on which race you are in. Like so many other industries, we'll have our Macs and PCs, our Ferrari-branded Acers and our Dells. The issue is not whether there is opportunity for thinfilm to grow as a percentage, but only how many of the races it will win.
Sass
Posted by sass at 11:17 PM | Comments (0)
January 17, 2006
Metamorphous...
There is a lot of talk in the industry about the new up and coming thin film players, yet it's interesting to see that the backbone of the technologies are pretty constant with what was available in the 1980's.
Either CIS or amorphous silicon are the base technologies. There is of course CdTe, yet people are really shy to get into that given the environmental concerns. (While its true that the amounts per solar module are minute, call it a perception thing!).
At the moment, it seems that there is greater interest in production processes which bring down the cost of CIS, a stable thin film recipe. Whereas the cost of deposition of amorphous silicon is a fraction of most CIS processes, some people are beginning to make noises that they feel they can compete on a cost basis per square foot, not just per watt. Obviously with its stability, CIS would be a winner in this case.
Some makers of amorphous silicon are beginning to experiment with micromorph (introducing the stability of thick film crystalline into a thinfilm production process) yet that is still not in the production rollout phase which some had predicted years ago. For some reason, no major breakthrough in capacity have been announced anywhere.
So it is just a matter of time before a few of these horses (expect some of them to simply not make it due to lack of depth of management and/or poor technology when compared) come into the public domain and change the paradigms. A couple of entrants are scheduled to begin deliveries in March so this is when we'll see the reaction of the thick film industry, in combination with supposed increases in capacity coming online. And as new ones come in, my little spy tells me that a couple of older thin film makers are about to close shop, due to the simple fact that their cell structure is too costly to make or their manufacturing process is simply not robust enough...
I just don't know. California is about to mimic the giant sucking sound that Germany has been towards any solar capacity for years...and I believe the market will continue to grow exponentially with the cost of oil at $66 per barrel. All I can say is that I am glad that ICP underwent the metamorphous process of focusing itself. Solar is definitely the sunny future for those who carve out the right path..
Sass Peress
PS> Sure enough the markets proved me wrong with publicly listed solar companies jumping near 10% in just a week. Luckily, I didn't divest just yet :)....
Posted by sass at 10:28 PM | Comments (0)
January 11, 2006
Potent PV Patent
Well well, just when the naysayers were telling us we could not get it...ICP was issued a patent today for its solar roof tile invention. This intellectual property achievement provides ICP Solar tremendous protection and opportunity in a market which to date is just beginning to be explored..integrated roof tiles for homes.
The patent relates to our Sunsei Construct Solar Slate product which we are about to get into testing for regulatory approvals after having made changes based on market feedback. And it would appear from the California situation that we are just in time to take advantage of a blooming market.
Today's news combined with the heat up in solar demand is surely good news for us all, but I must pat on the back those in our Bridgend factory who made so much happen in regards to this product and also thank Spencer Jansen and Phil Wolfe for the contributions in this regard.
With our growing bank of intellectual property (IP), the value of the innovations we have created is about to be exploited to full potential.
Regards
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 06:14 PM | Comments (0)
October 10, 2005
$$$$ down the drain...
So you've bought $3K worth of solar panels and the salesperson now wants to sell you a charge controller worth about $100 to monitor the battery state and prevent overcharging of the battery by the solar panels.
Now they tell you that their controller is 30Amps. Would you question it? Nope. YOU TRUST THEM! He or she goes about installing your system and yet each time you are in full sunlight, the controller "pops" a fuse. To remove it, you have to gain access to the controller's back circuit (if it's not auto-reset). Now why would it act like this if indeed it was the right unit for your needs?
Well, check the controller's specifications. Did the manufacturer write "30AMPS for 60 seconds" in small print? So what is the true rating of this controller? Likely about 21Amps.
Now if the controller should be able to handle 21Amps (about 300W) why is it that when the panels are not in full sunlight, the controller still pops? Once again, truth in advertising would force any knowledgeable vendor to tell you that you need a buffer between the rating of the controller (at its CONSTANT maximum rating) and the total power of the solar panels.
OK, now let's throw in one more tidbit just for fun...the controller he has sold you is not PWM based, which is just a fancy way of talking about monitoring and pulsing the charge to the battery so that it gets maximum power. A battery is like a sponge my buddy Randy once taught me. You can blast water into a sponge for the first 90% but for the last 10% you need to stage it in otherwise the water (aka power) will just bounce back. So basically, if your controller is not PWM based, then you could be losing 10% of the value of your solar panels. Take that $3K you just invested in solar panels, and write off $300. Tough luck!
This is the prime reason that during the past season, my company, ICP Solar, has been talking to industry leaders and technology developers. We have gauged the wishes of the consumers and compared our old offerings to new ones. So we partnered with a German firm over the summer and will be offering ONLY PWM controllers under our new brand..set to launch next month. You won't see them on our website until the official launch though, so please be patient. In the meantime, there are other companies from whom you could buy a very legitimate and high grade PWM controller like Morningstar or Specialty Concepts.
Therefore, if you are being offered a non-PWM controller, stop and think about how much the salesperson really knows about solar. Mass merchants may drive volume, but eventually you need help to understand such complicated systems. And if their salespeople have not been trained properly, then more often than not, you will get wrong advice. To buy a non-PWM controller for up to 5Amps is perhaps OK (your total loss would be $50). But lose $300, what a shame that would be...
Sass
Posted by sass at 09:25 PM | Comments (0)
August 20, 2005
Solar Size doesn't matter!
Here's an argument for small is big.
Take your boat for example. There is already not much room on a boat to put a solar panel. Some manufacturers dream of placing glass panels on powerboats near the rear. Really? When was the last time you put glass that can shatter in the way of people that want to get in and out of your boat to ski or dive?
So at the very least, try to find the most dense power per foot panels. There are also mounts that permit you to avoid drilling the boat deck or even placing the panel on rails (the ultimate because you can then point the panel to the sun and even double the power you receive from your panels). For ATV's make sure your wire leads are long enough to come down from a shed roof. Nobody I know leaves a solar panel outdoors hanging around on their motorcycle or ATV. It's clumsy and not practical. Besides your friendly neighborhood bear might mistaken it for dessert...
Another example is RV's. Most people do NOT wish to drill holes through the roof of their valuable "second homes". So try to find a solar panel with "feet" that you can glue down. In Europe, gluing is standard practice, but not yet in America. Ask your RV dealer or favourite store if they have such accessories.
For RV winterization/maintenance, find a panel small enough that it fits just above your air conditioner but powerful enough to maintain the battery.
For RV large power applications, find some flat spaces that won't interfere with your desire to park yourself on your roof at the next NASCAR race! Remember to position the panels so that if you later on wish to expand your system (over 25% of RVers expand their solar systems later on) you can easily do it.
Anyways, just a word of caution. Bigger is not better in solar. Think japanese. The more compact the full-featured cellphone, the more valuable it is. You can usually rate the technology of the product you are buying by its "real world" power density.
Knowledge is power. Small is big.
Sass
Posted by sass at 12:09 AM | Comments (0)
August 18, 2005
Max Power vs Min Power..is it martian to you?
Did you know that all amorphous silicon solar panels, which constitute the majority of panels under 20watts being sold by retailers in the USA, Canada, Europe and Australia, suffer from a reduction of power after soaking in light for periods of time?
In fact, the effect begins the second these panels see light. Within a few months, power output of such panels is reduced. In some cases, "sun-forced" degradation is almost 45% (according to University of California testing). In ICP's thin film panels, it's under 25%.
Now assuming you want to use your panels for years, it means that if you want to know your power needs for your application, you may need to increase your panel needs by up to 25% to be safe. This does not apply to the crystalline (blue) panels which are pre-stabilized in the manufacturing process. (The flip side is that ICP's thin film creates up to 20% more amps per watt than crystalline in real life so there is a balance which is close to net-zero with ICP panels).
This is why ICP is adopting a new labelling protocol which shows both initial and stable power (labelled as "max" and "min" under Standard Test Conditions). This is a huge shift for an industry that prefers to advertise its initial power simply because it looks like you are getting more for less. This is yet another step towards our "truth in advertising" mantra that you have seen me pushing for a while.
When we presented this to our major clients, they were concerned about how the customer would be educated. Some asked why we are still showing the "max" rating if it only lasts a short while, to which we responded that until the governments mandate the "min power" rating only, we can't be the lone wolf out there doing this.
Don't get me wrong, I will be delighted the day that the solar associations in America wake up and enforce such rating protocols! Meantime, we have to help retailers evolve to the truth while maintaining their perceived competitive position in the marketplace in which they play.
I know that legitimate solar manufacturers in the marketplace are applauding this position, so tis' not the sound of one hand clapping that you hear...
Sass
PS> No insult meant by the title to any martians reading this entry.
Posted by sass at 06:08 PM | Comments (2)
June 19, 2005
Defining Disruptive Solar
Here's the "question du jour"...is a 30% efficient solar cell at $5/watt disruptive or is a 4% efficient solar cell at $1/watt disruptive? Can't decide...maybe you don't have to!
Bottom line is that there can be disruption at both ends. For example, if someone wanted to create "disposable solar", like a solar charger that sold for $9.99 that could be part of a cellphone using futuristic "plastic solar", then the efficiency factor doesn't really have to be enormous.
Or if someone wanted to truly have independantly powered cities using 30% cells, then a higher cost per watt could be absorbed. So we must challenge an industry that has tended to see ALL solar in one manner...measured by "STC (standard test conditions)".
Firstly, the issue of measuring by STC is slowly going out the window as people begin to realize that different solar technologies react better under "real life" than under STC. If you can get 20% more power out of thinfilm technologies in real life than you get from thickfilm silicon ones, then why wouldn't you pay 20% more for thin film? In Germany, farmers are "renting" out their farm roofs to businesspeople who are getting returns from the utility companies for feeding in power into the grid system. These same people are now scrounging for thinfilm solutions because they are more affordable and in the end, give them more return on investment.
Secondly, "horses for courses" approaches are now being embraced as we realize that some technologies that provide less "efficiency" may in fact be better in certain conditions. For example, thin film amorphous cells react better under blue light and in marine conditions, with all that water in the air, more blue light is refracted. Thick film technologies are preferred where unencumbered access to direct strong sunlight for most hours of the year is available and where space is an issue.
Therefore defining "disruptive" may well be in the eye of the definer. For some its low power but low cost. For others, its high power at any cost. For me, its whatever works for the particular customer that is being offered solar technology as a solution.
Posted by sass at 08:08 PM | Comments (0)