Sass Peress
CEO of ICP Solar
Solar Blog

September 01, 2007

Viva Milano!

Many of us in the solar industry are off to a huge solar conference in Milan next week.

As in this article, the industry is abuzz with the new technologies entering the marketplace and the anticipation that they will occupy more and more place in the supply side of the global industry.

ICP Solar is showing new products and innovations at this show and we have new team additions thanks to the announced purchase of WES Technology.

The solar industry continues to grow at 30-40% per year and that in itself is something to get together and celebrate for us.

Sass

Posted by sass at 10:35 AM | Comments (0)

May 07, 2007

Where the minds go..

Ever wonder how the triangle of educational institutions, government and industry are working together towards the promotion of environmental technologies?

Apart from research initiatives, where the brightest minds work together to develop new technologies, the fact is that industry can become a giant vacuum which exerts pressure on the educational institutions to change their curricula adapting it to the needs of the future and opportunities for their students in new areas.

That's why if you start to hear more and more about universitites giving courses and special curriculum for renewable energies. In fact, if you read this article you'll see it as a call to more activity of this sort so that the brightest minds can begin to enter our stream in masses as they do any other industrial target.

So I googled "renewable energy university" and the results were outstanding. Many institutions around the world are picking up the call to begin educating our youth in these new technologies and opportunities. When we therefore hear of the "costs of Kyoto" by those governments who refuse to sign on, perhaps they would be better off thinking of the "opportunities of Kyoto" to create new industries in their countries. Yes, it means short term pain for long term gain, and for governments which are elected for four years or less, its hard to think long term (ie. beyong getting yourselves elected again!).

That is why true leaders stand out. It's because their vision connects with people at a base level of honesty. It is rare that we find them and when we do, even if they were ridiculed while in office for whatever reason, time tends to show them to be what they are..visionaries who held true to their outlook for a better world.

ICP Solar was very involved with universities years ago and is again ramping up such involvement as a way to help our communities (which are now growing since we have added locations in Madrid and soon Southern California with the finalization of the purchase of Discover Power). A global effort to help the youth of the world get the "solar bug"!

Sass

Posted by sass at 07:46 AM | Comments (0)

April 17, 2007

Commodity over-valuations

Analysts starting to claim commodity play over-valuations. It will be interesting to see how these types of plays find their values reduced or simply maintained over the summer months.

I maintain that only through ICP Solar's strategy can these current valuations be maintained or even grown. "Technology of today is the commodity of tomorrow" once said Michael Dell.

Sass

Posted by sass at 11:46 PM | Comments (0)

April 05, 2007

Changing of the guard

Some very interesting perspectives in an article on the solar power industry which popped online this morning.

If you read back to some of my previous postings, I've been saying the same thing for several months, yet its great to see my thoughts validated by PV industry gurus. The changing of the guard is underway and those old-timer solar companies which were started by greenies or scientists must now morph into industrial powerhouses or superior marketing machines.

As the articles, writes EVERYBODY is growing simply by the fact of the growth in the marketplace yet we are starting to see some cracks in certain performance levels and its my belief that in a year or so we'll start to see more major moves. The withdrawal of the Photowatt IPO and the subsequent management shake-up shows that the solar corporate world will not tolerate a lack of performance any more than in any other industry.

Keep your eyes open, there IS going to be blood on the floor with some of the "disruptive" players not even being felt yet..

Sass

Posted by sass at 09:26 AM | Comments (0)

March 28, 2007

Cracks begin to show...

Looks like we are starting to get into the next phase of the cycle...that which separates the commodity players from the rest.

With ATS announcing the withdrawal of its IPO for Photowatt, with Canadian Solar announcing poorer results in the last quarter, this related group may be the first victim of the "commodity" play. ATS announced it may be reconsidering its Spheral Solar activities. Its no secret that this whole venture is a classic case of a technology working in the lab but not being produceable in the context of new thin-film technologies which are now coming up to speed. Spheral was around since 1981 when Texas Instruments launched it and nobody has made it work to date. I suspect that it will be the final nail in its coffin now that the IPO is gone. ATS/Photowatt is a smart company who makes good product, so I'm sure that they will be making moves in the context of the "new realities" and will simply adjust "expansive" plans and replace them with more moderate and sustainable ones.

As for other crystalline-based solar power suppliers in the industry, we are finding increased availability of crystalline cells and as a result dropping prices. Once in a while I see an article talking about continued shortages of silicon, yet I'm not feeling that in the marketplace. The key now is to see who will have a strategy to get through this next phase, and who will not.

I know ICP Solar has, and is showing its stripes publicly and with pride. We are taking on new clients and even taking some old ones back (stay tuned!). The key is that lasting value remains our theme and this is a one which requires investment and continuous improvements as the markets demand more of its suppliers.

Sass

Posted by sass at 02:00 AM | Comments (2)

March 20, 2007

Take me out to the solar park...

News comes today that San Francisco will have the world's first solar powered baseball park..

This is testament to how incentives provided by the government to do "the right thing" can lead to renewable technologies being "competitive". Its actually a fallacy to really compare coal or oil to solar since there are hidden subsidies to the oil industry, while subsidies to the solar industry are transparent.

I wonder if they'll only be able to hit the ball when the sun is out :)

Sass

Posted by sass at 06:30 PM | Comments (0)

March 02, 2007

Solar Spanking

The plunge in stock markets of the past week, led by a melt-down in China, has put into question the ability of chinese RE stock to maintain the levels at which they are currently priced.

Many of the chinese stocks were smartly priced at IPO level based on "last year's performance indicating future earnings" which is inaccurate in a market which is moving from high overdemand to somewhat oversupply. The drop in module pricing by about 10-15% has shown that margins are squeezing, as evidenced by the recent quarterly reports of Chinese solar companies, like Canadian Solar (CSIQ) as one example.

Buyer beware, even in a blue sky market. Without distinction, companies will be shooting each other in a commodity market, and only the strongest and most agile will survive.

Sass

Posted by sass at 01:48 PM | Comments (0)

December 07, 2006

Thin Film Monsters

Amazing how a few days can make some people warm up to my view that thin film WILL be 17% of the market by 2010. Enter a complete unknown into the solar industry with this announcement of a 160MW thinfilm amorphous plant.

They've done it with the right partner in my opinion. Although the piece states that Oerlikon is the "only" supplier of complete systems, there is in fact another. Its an american company called EPV. EPV uses a small footprint of 5MW building blocks (at the moment) and believes in a strategy of putting down smaller factories near the location of the market whereas Oerlikon believes that with such massive buying power, you can negate the advantage of such localized manufacturing of small batches. Both sell systems for about $1 per watt in capex investment so this is where it gets interesting.

The competition in thinfilm just got much much much hotter and it shows that a prediction of a TON of supply coming onto the market in the next 24 months is absolutely true. It also validates the strategic plan which we have put forth to our Board on Monday, which will be made public at the appropriate time. No forward-looking statements here, just a bunch of grins on the faces of my executives who are more and more comforted by our direction.

Expect some blood on the floor in the next 12 months. Suddenly cell suppliers are calling out of nowhere and the race to market share just got much more intense.

Sass
NASDAQ SYMBOL: ICPR

Posted by sass at 06:49 AM | Comments (0)

November 04, 2006

O Canada....

This past week marked the largest Canadian solar power event ever held...a total of about 20 booths exhibited their wares at the CANSIA-led conference. Of the companies exhibiting a total of 4 produced product in Canada, while others represented products created and/or manufactured elsewhere.

There were politicians and business people, those from academic circles and from general interest. In all, despite its modest size, the general feeling is that there is momentum growing in Canada, as in other countries, for renewable energy, yet its still quite small in this country. Some people asked why?

Consider that Canada created know-how in nuclear reactors with Candu reactor technology, developed high-power hydro projects considered to be amongst the most successful and ambitious in the world and have more oil than Canadians could hope to consumer for generations to come. In such an environment, combined with the fact that the perception remains that solar energy is for "hot spots", and you can begin to understand why 30million people who live in a land 50% larger than the USA, don't really make a lot of noise for internal consumption of renewable power (as defined separately from hydro or nuclear). Thus it remains to be seen if substantial consumption programs can invigorate the business atmosphere in Canada.

Where we may have an opportunity is in the focus on export of product and development of key areas of technology or focus. Some solar power products such as the Solarwall and ICP Solar products are almost exclusively exported with 90% of revenue being generated outside of Canada. Therein perhaps lies the answer for the Canadian government which is struggling to understand how to better support Canadian industry without taking the kinds of risks it did with SSP Solar, division of ATS Automation, which has basically closed the chapter on its much trumpeted launch of spheral solar technology.

Sass

Posted by sass at 11:24 AM | Comments (2)

October 19, 2006

Solar Power Conference Confirmations....

Just returning from Solar Power Conference 2006 at San Jose this week. The industry is indeed changing..how?

1. Supply is ramping up so quickly that some are facing inventory build-ups mostly because the program uptake in the supply chain can't keep up. For more regarding the siicon shortage, read Neal Dikeman's blog entry of this week.
2. Thin films are not only here to stay but also about to compete on the thick film's backyard with better efficiencies than ever before yet with continued lower costs.
3. The supply contracts that were signed last year with long terms and market adjustment clauses, will see market adjustments without question in 2007.
4. Consolidation is coming. This is an industry which is maturing. Small players will be left to niche markets or face extinction. Eventually they will either have to join up or be squashed. There are too many "solar microchip makers" who don't have gigawatts in sight.
5. A bubble burst in valuations won't continue for much longer as bandwidth and the extensive Spanish and Italian programs begin an uptake in production that will temper the downturn and not permit it to be as drastic as the early 2000's.
6. Going public at this time for ICP Solar was one the best things we could have done. Suddenly people are talking to us in a totaly different manner and with enthusiasm. Amazing what an IPO will do! Money follows money. Specially when its smart money.
7. It's going to be about two models: distinction or commodity. The low cost producers will win the latter. The high value deliverers will occupy the former. There will be little room for anything else.
8. China and India are coming on strong. China is already becoming the low cost producer in the value chain. India is providing lamination services, just like it does in the IT sector.
9. The US market will be exploding with California leading the way. This was the best attended american show in history and almost rivaled its European counterpart in attendance, although not quite in size.

That's all my I can think of for now. If more comes to mind, I'll add more later.

Sass

Posted by sass at 09:51 PM | Comments (0)

October 10, 2006

Eclictic Electrics

At the recent Paris Auto Show it wasn't only the Ferraris or beautiful models that were getting the attention of the crowds as the latest greatest technology-advanced car.

As sustainability becomes a greater theme not only in the solar industry, but across the automotive industry as well, I expect we'll see more and more vehicles like this Venturi car showcased in Paris or this solar car (Canadian eh?) exhibited at the recent Wired Nextfest in New York. And to make a nice link to solar, the Venturi vehicle features roof-mounted solar panels which can extend the driving range of the car. While 30 miles isn't going to permit you to run around as much as you may wish, others are researching battery technologies which will now permit up to 100 miles before recharge.

Now like every other technology in its infancy, the vehicle is not yet that dragster that can take you from 0-60 in under 5 seconds. Yet in this category, there IS a new entrant which can do just that! Ian Wright, is the inventor of the X1 roadster. Imagine an electric speedster that blows away a Ferrari 360? Seem impossible..think again.

Its very exciting to me that we can use business to change the world. With a global effort to uproot oil's dominance of our power supply from so many angles (power generation, power storage, power management) I think that energy is to this century what the microchip was to the last, a defining technology focus that will change the way we live. Like a hockey stick, we are just on the brink of the upward curve. We may be several decades away from stopping those oil fields from pumping, yet at least it seems like the light is in sight.

Sass

Posted by sass at 08:22 AM | Comments (0)

September 07, 2006

Solar Schmuck

No, its not about somebody that we should stay away from; "shmuck" means "jewelry" in German, and for me that was the most innovative booth at the recent conference for solar industry in Dresden, Germany.

This was different from the last conference I attended in Hawaii, in May, whereby the availability of modules seems to be easing up and we may even detect some price stability or reduction. I have a feeling that those that booked up 2007 back in 2005 are well sold out, yet the new capacity or unsold capacity may be available if you look hard enough by players who have recently added capacity and did not have the history for big players to commit in large volumes to.

The major difference was the presence of a number of thin film booths. It appears that the projections show thin films taking 17% market share by 2010 (just three and half years away) and is a very telling thing when you consider that today, thin films account for about 1% of worldwide usage.

Once again, disruptives had a lot of promise, yet little delivery so far. It seems that they continue to develop in the lab yet are not quite ready for "prime time". Its either that or they are keeping a low profile until fully tested and see no point in advertising to the rest of the industry their progress.

In any case, 2007 is shaping up as a huge year for solar (and ICP Solar) as the markets continue to evolve and demand grows in new countries where grid programs are being launched this year and next. We were four representatives of ICP Solar at this show and I must say that the old adage "strength in numbers" played well for us. I believe we'll exhibit there next year as it seems that this is a very trade-oriented affair, whereas Intersolar in Freiburg is very consumer focused.

Sass

Posted by sass at 08:43 PM | Comments (0)

September 01, 2006

From the world leader in solar...

The leader in solar by far, in terms of capacity is Sharp. So when their leader speaks, people listen.

According to him, solar will be competitive with nuclear by 2030 and fossil fuels will be out of the running. I think that's a very very very bold prediction. He even anticipates that solar's cost will be halved within the next 3.5 years (2010). I believe these are very aggressive targets, yet not atypical of Japanese industry leaders trying to push envelopes and drive their team towards goals that may be unrealistic yet still within the scope of possibility.

The article I quote just appeared as the industry heads to the largest solar conference in Europe in Dresden, Germany next week. We'll see if the industry consensus is that he is right or not.

Sass

Posted by sass at 01:29 AM | Comments (0)

August 29, 2006

Strength in numbers...

Well it looks like the sales reps of Topray Shenzhen are quite peeved at us. They have threatened me if I continue to talk about the "retracted" Humboldt Study published first in July 2006 in Denver at the Solar Conference. So just in case we end up having to do so, here are four more reports which basically came to the same conclusion as the most recent "study". Maybe like Prince, the rock star, I will call it "the solar report previously known as Humboldt2006".

In 2004, Berkeley University reported these findings (note that Arne Jacobson conducted these tests): Download file
In 2005, Bodycote Materials Testing Lab did this one. Download file
In 2004, West Marine did this test at Cal Poly, in California and as a result discontinued the Seafit product when they saw the results of what they had been buying: View image
In 2004, Loughborough University tested 4 units sold in Kenya. The ESolar brand, sold by Kenital was made by Topray Solar. (Test available upon request as its too large a file to upload here). Subsequent to these findings, Kenya introduced laws that required testing to be proven prior to importation. Since that time, virtually no panels have infiltrated the market from Topray Solar. I think you can guess as to why that might be...

So its important to note that all the failed panels in these tests are made by Shenzhen Topray Solar. No progress in 3 years! And no advisors in the world that their reps can hire to attempt to give themselves the cloak of credibility will be able to change a thing if the owner of the factory profits so much from selling such sub-par product. After all, if he can make a ton selling crap, why change? Because its the "right thing to do"? You gotta be joking...

The high road makes you breathe and sleep better. Trust me, making an impact on your community (personal or professional) by respecting the values of ethics, integrity and honesty is a far better road than focusing on your individual needs for a quick buck...

Smiling Sass

Posted by sass at 06:04 PM | Comments (2)

August 14, 2006

Solar's poor reputation amongst the masses..

It really pains me when I read fellow weblogs like this one where regular people are lamenting the poor performance and almost "ripoff category" in which so many solar products can be placed.

So many look at TV commercials for solar and see the gadgets offered only to be disappointed with their performance. Do they blame the bulb in a poor solar light? The casing? The battery? The circuit? NOPE. They blame SOLAR! SImply put, its always the tendency to blame the unknown quantity. That with which we are not totally comfortable gets first crack as blame for poor performance.

Yet the fact is that solar has been performing admirably in one category for decades that consumers have embraced...solar calculators. How many people complain about their solar calculators? None that I've heard of..in the light anyways!

So we now go to the crux of the matter which is the fact that developers have taken a "solar technology" and attempted to apply it to as many possible real-life situations as possible, even if the combination of solar power generation, power management and storage technologies were not properly suited. It comes down to that triangle of power which dictates whether or not a product will be succesful in creating that often-elusive sensation of complete customer satisfaction.

In an earlier blog I wrote about "lasting value". The fact that this is only one business model. As the telemarketers have proven so often, there are enough suckers indeed to plunk out money on a promise which is so unreal, it actually doesn't matter. Hopefully in time, there are enough quality solar products out there delivering on the expectations that consumers begin to understand that NOT all solar is created equal.

If you are out there thinking of marketing or designing a solar product and would like a seasoned opinion, please do not hesitate to post a comment on this blog entry with your email address and I'll contact you shortly thereafter. Even if ICP Solar is not involved commercially, I'd rather help someone avoid putting a bad product onto the market and have them win with a good one instead.

Sass

Posted by sass at 01:30 PM | Comments (1)

July 14, 2006

The Denver Solar Scandal...

Back in 2005, Humboldt University's Dr. Arne Jacobson had been mandated by the renewable energy association of Kenya to conduct testing on the amorphous silicon modules being sold there. The concern was that there were still modules which did not output the true power stated on their labels and that this could cause major issues. Think about it, people in that country depend on these panels for their LIVELYHOOD!

Comes 2006, and Humboldt University now decides to do its own testing on North American branded modules. The results were astounding to them and the attendees at Denver's recent Solar Power Conference last week, yet held no surprise to ICP Solar which has been basically saying the same thing for about three years now. Panels which carried labels of 15Watts (made by the Chinese maker) and models made by ICP Solar which are labelled 18W max and 14W min (min power = stable power at STC) were tested over a period of several months to ensure that the "light soaking" degradation effect was relatively complete.

Out of 10 modules tested, ICP Solar's average stable output was 14.2Watts, just slightly above the advertised level on our labels for minimum power. The other maker's modules...well let's just say that I'd rather write POSITIVES about ICP's modules than negatives about anyone else's. All 10 modules were purchased blindly by Humboldt, so as to avoid any "fix" by the makers.

ICP Solar stands tall and proud that our panels deliver on their promise...and more. You can hear a podcast, care of Ben Kenney about the particular study and what Dr. Jacobson feels should be done now. Oh yes, I get to slip in a few words in the interview as well :).

Well done team ICP. These results show we have much to be proud of.

Sass
PS> Since the report is not in final form, I was asked by the researcher not to post it for download. Remember that the "truth comes out in the end", and there are people who obviously can be very upset by these truths, therefore Dr. Jacobson is being extremely prudent about the format in which he will publicize the documents. The same "attack and deny" strategy occurred in 2004 in Kenya, when distributors of the fake-rated panels screamed at the top of their lungs. Once things settled down, the truth showed that the intiial reports were extremely accurate not only as to the source of the modules but also to their final outputs. In the end, the solar and retail industry now knows who is making these panels and who is selling them. Their brand, and what it represents, is determined by their actions, not by their words. Studies using solar panels distributed in Kenya in 2004/2005 showed that Shenzhen Topray is the company to avoid. Say no more...

Posted by sass at 07:11 AM | Comments (1)

July 02, 2006

Solar Security

I try not to wade too deeply into politics in my blog, yet a story today about how Israel is responding to the taking of its soldier last week has an interesting angle for the "power of power".

Amongst their many types of responses, the Israelis have taken to targeting the energy infrastructure of the Gaza strip. In this story you will read (near the bottom) that after taking out their main central power station, the Palestinians resorted to gas-powered generators for energy supply. So what did the Israelis do next? Cut off their gas supplies...

No matter where you stand on this situation, the interesting perspective from a solar industry veteran is that solar power provides independant, safe AND secure power. Can you take out a million roofs if each is providing the power that the building which they protect requires? It has often been said that the same would be true of a terrorist's targets (nuclear power plants or other centralized power generation facilities).

Solar power solves many issues. Just imagine if the Palestinians would invest in rooftop solar power plants instead of centralized power...the Israelis would develop a solar blanket that can be shot over a rooftop and drape it? I think I may just have discovered a new industry...solar powered counter-attack equipment supply!

I wonder if this means that expenditures in solar power can be considered military defense expenditures under US-GAAP accounting rules? (kidding!).

Sass
PS> To all my readers, please note that I do not make light of the plight of any of the people involved in the conflict example I used above. I am simply pointing out the strength of independance, safety and security of solar power.

Posted by sass at 07:01 AM | Comments (1)

May 16, 2006

Succulent Solar

It's official. Solar is PC. Solar is sexy. Solar is "cool". When your kids come back from school talking about solar, not because they are the children of a solar CEO, yet more because they are being taught the wonders of solar in class, then you know that Solar has hit its time.

Two years ago, my eldest son Ethan and I built a dye-sensitized solar cell from blackberry juice and titanium dioxide. It was a really neat solar experiment which anyone can buy online. Today there are various versions and are found in various school curricula and educational websites.

And when your reps, vendors and others ask you when they'll be able to invest themselves through ICP SOLAR into this wild ride market (tic toc?), it means that we truly are operating in a world where solar is no longer "on the edge".

Being so proud of my team which has been so tenacious in its belief in our vision, I must say it's so easy to wake up these days to the sunshine around me, particularly when I have such a great partner (Arlene) who just lights up any office she operates in...

Sass

Posted by sass at 10:18 PM | Comments (0)

May 13, 2006

Solar Silicon Surprises

Silicon feedstock coming back online in 2008, yet vendors of cells requiring 8 year commitments. Why? I believe its because they know that there will be a flood of inventory starting end 2007 and that the market will be more competitive.

The issue is that if all the silicon feestock is committed, it doesn't matter if there is more cell capacity, the price won't budge. In come disruptive technologies. CIGS on stainless that promises 12% efficiency for less than $1 per watt. Amorphous with 8% stable on flex material for $2 per watt.

The fact is that we will have a major market disruption in 2008. Commodity price pressure will squeeze any cell maker who does not have long term contracts for both supply and demand. Yet nobody is perfect and there is no way to perfectly balance those two. The issue will be therefore how to limit damage to the bottom line.

This is when the tide may turn against anyone holding factory capacity without a guaranteed outlet. Vertical integration looks smart now, yet will it be when there is too much capacity? Or will the added demand upsurge continue to completely absorb whatever capacity the industry will bring on.

No matter what, this is going to be an interesting ride. Judging from the excitement at Kona's Hawaii IEEE Solar Conference (from which I just returned), the industry is getting ready for major change. Anyone who knows me understands how much I embrace change. The issue is not how it affects you, but how you can use it to affect your world.

Enjoy the weekend. Here in Montreal they are predicting rain, yet I am sure I'll manage to find some sunshine somehow.

Mahalo (thanks in hawaii),

Sass

Posted by sass at 12:49 AM | Comments (0)

May 11, 2006

Hawaiian Holdup

OK, so here's the deal. You give me an 8 year guaranteed purchase order, with a deposit for two years worth. I return the deposit in 1.5 years yet you must replace that with another deposit for the following two years before I do so.

That is the bottom line talk today of crystalline cell makers. And by the way, prices can be increased at anytime at their full discretion. If you're wondering what kind of industry this is, actually, despite 18 years in it, so am I.

The whole thing stems from the cost of a new silicon feedstock facility. When you pay hundreds of millions to put up a 5000tonne facility, you need assurance that the industry for which you are doing so gives you a handsome return. It is not abnormal and totally fair.

The challenge is that there is no "market" control in this which compares crystalline to other technologies. Its almost like they are still operating under old premise that no technology will replace crystalline for the coming 5 years or so.

I have a strange feeling that, as with other markets, the solar market is about to be radically spun on its head. Never have I seen so many new technologies coming out all at once. And when ONE of them hits big, the crystalline folks are in for a surprise.

So "bottom line", hold onto your hats. The price of solar is not about to come down anytime soon (in fact yet more increases were announced in pricing here at the conference) and the fact is that they are totally right in doing so because when the market flips on the suppliers, they will be back to an oversupply, competitive situation.

What does this bode for solar stocks? They are secure for at least two years IMHO. After that, it will be the strong that survive and the weak will be taken over. Having complete vertical integration has its merit for the next two years. After that, some companies need to make sure that their markets are growing fast enough to handle their own capacity improvements otherwise they will be laden with huge capital investments in a market which takes no prisoners.

I'm leaving Hawaii now, so a final ALOHA to all my friends (particularly those that took care of my wife on her birthday while I was away)...

Sass

Posted by sass at 11:53 AM | Comments (5)

May 10, 2006

Aloha Sunshine

Here in Hawaii at the IEEE solar conference.

Its a bit less impressive than what I thought, with lots of people simply complaining about silicon feedstock shortages and some chinese companies that have no inventory or anything to sell right now simply gaining more exposure to the industry.

However what strikes me is that there are a lot more booths touting amorphous silicon and other thin films as the solutions of the future. So whether by default or by design, thin film is here to stay. Even some of the big names like Sharp are getting well into thin film as strategies of the future.

This can only be good news for the thin film industry. More players means more control means more regulation means a more level playing field.

Aloha.

Sass

Posted by sass at 04:26 AM | Comments (2)

May 07, 2006

Solar Down Under

I'm in Australia at the moment (on way home) and can't help but comment on how progressive the "off grid" uses of solar PV are in this country. Given its tremendous amount of annual sunshine, the use of solar has proliferated in the "off grid" market in the recreational spheres as much or more than in any "grid supported" markets worldwide. I am sure that on a "per capita" basis, the Aussies take the prize for use of solar.

One prime example is the RV industry. Whereas we can quote low single digits for OEM RV makers vehicles that roll off the production line with a solar panel, here in Australia, 85% of vehicles come off the line with a built-in solar charger. That is how progressive dry-camping use of solar energy already is. Now of course that means that much of the aftermarket for RV solar panels is retrofit to units which never had a panel, it also points to how progressive RV owners in Australia are. You can bet that makers would not be putting panels (they don't usually spend a single penny they don't have to) on vehicles if the demand was not there.

I'd go as far to say that in Australia today, it's an EXPECTATION to have a panel with your RV. Hopefully that expectation begins to be "exported" to other countries so that OEM's can begin to use solar PV as well. In the context of a challenging environment for RV use (high gas prices), I believe that progressive makers should begin to offer PV solutions as a way to show consumers that they don't have to break the bank to live life off the grid in their RV.

Sass in OZ...

Posted by sass at 03:59 AM | Comments (2)

April 27, 2006

Different solar models produce different operating results...

While Sharp posted higher net revenues THANKS to its solar division (in part), Evergreen Solar recorded higher losses (despite higher sales) in its first quarter. Evergreen's stock was set back to its February 06 levels, while Sharp's increased.

In both cases, the revenues were higher than expected, yet the interesting difference is how the companies' bottom lines are being managed. Evergreen has not yet had one full year of positive gross margins, yet it continues to participate in new technology funding and new ventures (ie. EverQ). Sharp on the other hand, has reached profitability despite some funding towards thin film facilities (nothing revolutionary, just standard thin film materials).

At some point, investors in Evergreen are going to want to see a decrease in R&D and sustainability in profits. I hope the management has that in mind. I have tremendous respect for them and their accomplishments to date. Partnering with Qcells is something that ICP Solar has done as well, as they are masters at manufacturing models. They can't hope to be the next "Amazon" or "Ballard" because those two commanded such market leads, that taking on huge losses for a few years was ok. In the solar industry, Evergreen does not command such a lead.

In general, the solar stocks have stopped the meteoric rises, the question becomes who is going to adjust downwards more than the rest. I would submit that those taking focused or more conservative (ie. traditional) approaches to business will suffer the least in a corrective stage.

Sass

Posted by sass at 05:58 AM | Comments (0)

April 21, 2006

What goes up...

...is still going up!

Once again I find myself puzzled at the meteoric rise of solar companies valuations. From 6.6times sales to 58 times revenues, whichever measure you pick, its in the stratosphere.

However we can see some people getting nervous and others "smoking out" the commodity plays. Those companies which are depending on a purely logistical advantage are being whacked back down when they underperform on margin. Those companies which are showing more mature business strategies are continuing their rise. And those which are showing innovative approaches (a la horses for courses) are continuing very very strong gains.

Who gets left behind? The bottom dwellers. The ones who have not much of a plan yet can still make sales. Those who have a "me too" plan. Those who depend solely on chinese cost advantages (temporarily). These companies have no future. They will be swamped by innovation shortly. They will simply have no place to turn. As the market gets smarter (and wise to them) they will disappear. Who am I talking about? Mostly asian companies who thought that simply "being in solar" was enough to be successful. Those that launched me-too products figuring that there is a sucker born every minute.

We see dozens upon dozens of portable solar chargers, standard solar modules,etc. coming out of China today in the consumer market. Still nobody gets it. The customer is getting wiser and is having more choice. Get wise or get out.

In a sense, this is simply a sign of a maturing market. What happens then? The crazy rises will temper. They will perhaps even pull back for a while. Yet the "boat has left the port" when it comes to solar and the future is only going to get better for those that have a real knack to innovate, develop and sustain.

Sass

Posted by sass at 11:48 PM | Comments (0)

April 11, 2006

Imposter Podcast..

Arne Jacobsen, a researcher at Humboldt University in the USA, recently did an online interview with Ben Kenney. Ben runs www.thewatt.com and podcasts worldwide the interviews that he does with various people regarding power and energy. He covers everything from oil to renewables in his website.

In a particular interview, podcast yesterday, the second half was dedicated to Arne's testing of amorphous thin film solar panel activities. Arne's testing was instrumental in ridding the Kenyan market (highest per capita user of solar in the developing world) and he is now doing similar testing in North America, as I had reported months ago.

As opposed to testing which ICP Solar has commissioned through various independant labs before, this is an initiative which comes from Prof. Jacobsen, and will be shortly publicized in its entirety, including the naming of the brands involved.

The initial results that he has reported in the podcast indicate that only Unisolar and ICP Solar (Sunsei brand) provide the rated power in the amorphous thin film modules that he has tested. The podcast was too short to mention the other brands which are only delivering up to 60% of their claimed power (even under ideal conditions), yet he clearly indicates that an amorphous maker in China is responsible for the propagation of the fake-rated panels.

Frankly speaking, it has often backfired when we ourselves "outed" the fakes, because either the customer did not care or had another agenda at hand (profits before quality). What is interesting for me is that what I've been telling the industry for over 3 years is now finally being confirmed independantly. Others are going to follow Arne's footsteps and the publicity which we have been waiting for is finally coming to play.

How the various government consumer protection agencies react to these results will be most interesting indeed. In the end, we only have our reputations which will go with us wherever we are. In a world where nobody is perfect, only those that continue to improve will improve their brands.

As I no longer see those who engage in such activities to be our competition, the road to success for myself and our organization has been clearly defined three years ago and despite doing so at tremendous cost, we will stay that course, knowing who WE are.

Sass

Posted by sass at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

March 31, 2006

Solar Spin Offs Soar

The interesting part of watching the increased activity in M&A and IPO in the solar industry is how the valuations of the "parent" companies do once the spin off has occurred.

Global Solar was sold this week by Unisource Energy. Now normally, when one sells off a division that has been bleeding $20M of losses in a few years, we'd expect the market to breathe a sigh of relief and reward such a move with an immediate hike. No such thing happened to UNS. Yet I must express public kudos to Mike Gering (President of GSE) and Jim Pignatelli (Chairman of UNS) for giving Global the opportunity to grow through the sale to European owners. UNS kept some "skin in the game" with the option on shares, hedging a potential upside should the new owners truly make Global Solar shine (and I see no reason why they would not mimic their success in their home country of Germany).

A similar story is set with Cypress and Sunpower. Cypress Semiconductor leveraged the hot market to spin off a huge IPO recently. However the value of the shares it owns in Sunpower is NOT reflected in its own market valuation. Why is that?

ATS Automation, in Canada, is set to do the same thing with its Spheral Solar and Photowatt divisions. Its expected that the spin off could have a market cap in excess of the original parent.

Could it be that the market believes that solar valuations are overpriced today, tredding on emotion, and are set to come back down to earth? Or is it that the market simply doesn't know how to account for this situation yet, given the embryonic nature of the "solar stocks" and the market's relative uncomfort at how to value them as part of a "non-solar" entity?

I'm not sure of the answer, but what I do know is that the valuations achieved recently are amazing. When divisions of parents are bought by others at a high price despite losses, you could simply point to a mismatch of corporate cultures and ambition. Why does the new investor stand a chance of making something that was losing money profitable? Perhaps they have a vision and the energy (or stomach) to take something and invest further, where the original owner lost it.

Whatever the answer, (and I invite your comments please), the solar market continues to surprise, although we've seen a plateau reached in some stocks and others have simply relaxed their meteoric rise. In either case, we are witnessing an industry which is maturing and coming into its own.

Posted by sass at 09:18 PM | Comments (1)

March 20, 2006

Silicon Reality Check

If anyone doubted the effect of a few bits of silicon, see the effect in the past two days on the Evergreen market cap tumble. A simple hiccup like raw material supply issues has caused a huge drop in value in just two days. Evergreen even paid a deposit to reserve feedstock and yet MEMC is not to supply all that it had contracted to do.

Evergreen now must try to find another way to get raw materials into its feedline otherwise have machines stop and labor get an extended "smoking break". All continues to point to the fragility of a supply line dependant on the scraps of the microchip industry. He who solves this one is a big winner...and there are a more than a few of the disruptive technology guys laughing (in private of course) at this sequence of events.

Evergreen will surely recover as this does not significantly impact long term view on the company, yet it does exarcerbate the fragility of the situation for anyone dependant on silicon feedstock.

Sass

Posted by sass at 06:01 PM | Comments (3)

March 04, 2006

Solar Soaring Valuations...

If you've been reading my blogs about solar valuations, I have felt for some time that valuations had hit their peaks or that the wild increases were to abate. Having invested in some of the solar companies, there's nothing more than I would like to see than continued sharp rises.

Nevertheless, that is not sustainable and the issue becomes not "whether" there will be a sobering period, but "when". Despite all the added business in solar, there will be consolidation as small players are taken out. They will left to work in niche markets (such as ICP SOLAR currently does) or wiped out if their game is in the arena of the big boys.

So this brings me back to the current scenario where companies are at 40times earnings and then again...most solar companies don't make money. Here begs the question..if you own stock in a public company in the solar business and you don't cash out now, are you a fool?

I think the answer lies in the business model which they have or will have in the future. If the company you've invested in is able to carve itself out a niche, then it can stand out from the noise and continue to actually soar even when the commodity plays are crashing due to oversupply. So will there ever be oversupply? Well, have you ever known a market that NEVER caught up? Not me.

This is business. Take out the emotion and figure it out. Then pick the stocks that will have a distinction which will carry them through a glut. Either a better production model or marketing model. Its one of those two that will mark the survivors of the future solar industry.

Sass

Posted by sass at 02:45 PM | Comments (1)

March 01, 2006

Spring is in the air

Well we can definitely feel winter's last hurrah as March comes in. People are getting that "itch" they feel as winter's days get longer and we can sense that warmer weather is a round the corner.

If we look at all the publicity surrounding solar in the past months, it should bode for an extremely strong "boomerang" as people now are tuned into the other applications of solar such as recreational or portable power. I suspect we'll also see renewed vigor in the publicity campaigns of retailers wanting to cash in on this trend.

With Arnold doing his thing so well in California, I suspect the USA is the market to watch this year. Traditionally shortages of panels have been caused due to the large programs in Europe. It will be interesting to monitor short term supply and the demand spikes that all of this new interest is bound to create for SunseiTM.

"Waking up each day as if it was on purpose" is the attitude that resolves issues and creates opportunities. The solar industry has finally awoken to the challenge and the power of the people will drive it to even greater heights as it boosts its' ability to satisfy demand.

Sass

Posted by sass at 09:18 AM | Comments (0)

February 24, 2006

USA = United Solar America !

George Bush has now gone into the solar deep end by actually visiting a solar energy factory in Michigan while his treasury secretary went to Memphis to another one...all in the same week! Somebody please take my temperature!

This is an incredible switch for the american political agenda on the Republican side yet one can perhaps understand it may also be the wake-up call to all american industry that its falling behind the rest of the world and that it needs to pick up the pace to catch up and hopefully (for americans) surpass the other countries in the development of an industry.

Either way, this is great news for solar. What million dollar ad campaign could have the same effect as all the PR the President of the US can generate himself? None I could think of.

So go out there and buy solar...well not just any solar of course (www.sunseisolar.com) and remember that we all can make our little part to reduce carbon emissions. I think I'll send George a solar charger for his Texas ranch's electric fence charger...

Sass

Posted by sass at 06:20 PM | Comments (0)

February 02, 2006

VW Solar Power

Back in 2000, Volkswagen approached ICP Solar to produce a solar charger to prevent its car batteries from going dead in the time until the car was sold on the dealer lots. Despite our reputation for quality products in the automotive aftermarket, we were ill-prepared to deal with one of the top 10 car makers in the world. The stringent process diligence and quality specification windows were simply too narrow for us to reach. Additionally we had a few gregarious snakes biting at our ankles trying to trip us up on the way to the finish line (competition can be nasty!).

In 2004, when VW was ready to put the contract up for tender again, they once again approached us and asked if we were ready. Needless to say, it was the chance that I had been waiting for after having had it stolen from under my nose (literally!). We put great resources together and just last month delivered our first lot to VW in Mexico. Below is a picture of the product created internally at ICP for the automotive industry:

The press release announcing the launch of our wonderful creation is out tonight. We have patents pending on the intellectual property and have already been approached by others with a view to supplying their needs as well. Not only does this point to yet another great use of solar power, but it shows that our team has come a long way. Indeed there are kudos and thanks which I wish to express publicly for this achievement:

Luc- For perseverance beyond the norm and a drive to deliver.
Phil- For keeping us in check and ensuring we are dead on with quality.
Tony- For keeping the old clock ticking well enough to make new solar technology.
Steve- For simply making the job look so easy.
Spencer- For having helped us drive a team in the right direction of quality, ethics, honesty and integrity.
Andrew- For bringing your good business sense and humor to a most demanding bidding process during your short stay at ICP Solar.
Po- For your patience, wisdom and help to understand that mexican beer only kills off the weaker brain cells.
Arlene- For picking up where many others left off, and taking us to the next level in so many ways, and in such a short time.

...and to many others who have helped to make this dream come true. Thanks to all of you, ICP reached a pinnacle otherwise impossible.

Solar regards,

Sass Peress

Posted by sass at 08:22 PM | Comments (2)

February 01, 2006

"Bush for Solar" Bumper Stickers?

I watched George Bush's state of the union address last night with complete amazement. Here was the President from Texas promoting the idea that Americans needed to drop their "addiction" to oil? I must admit I did a double-take and yet then remembered that with Exxon and other oil companies reporting the largest profits in global corporate history, it's pretty easy for anyone to throw up the "we need another solution" balloon (particularly when its draped in the flag of "foreign dependency").

However, whether through rhyme or reason, the speech last night must have the effect of boosting the spirits of renewable energy businesses in the USA who have frankly had much less support than their counterparts in Japan or Germany. If through a combination of Governator Arnold's plan and Mr. Bush's new research initiatives, a spark is lit under the American renewable power industry's flame, then who is to complain?

With oil prices continuing to rise, a Republican leader in office promoting solar power research and a Republican governor in the world's 6th largest economy promoting solar power programs, we have a developing "perfect storm" to drive an American industry far higher than ever before.

In retrospect, I should have lent him ICP Solar's slogan "Let our Power give you Freedom" for his speech!

Sass Peress

Posted by sass at 08:17 AM | Comments (3)

January 23, 2006

Silicon Supply Squeeze Strengthens...

If anyone thought that the New Year would bring price relief and supply loosening on the crystalline solar module/ solar cell side, fuggetaboutit! The most recent forecasts for solar power industry show a 5% projected annual in 2006, after consistent 25%+ years for as long as I can remember.

In a recent article published in Renewable Energy Access you can read all you'd hate to about the shortages which will become more acute in this coming year and into 2007, with relief only foreseable in 2008.

This does not bode well for retailers that have on-time delivery demands nor consumers who are ordering online only to find their products shipped months later. The fact is that given a choice, the solar panel vendors will ship the large contracts (which have substantial penalties associated with them) rather than a pallet to their local retailer.

So for the next two years, get what you can and count your lucky stars you got it! Locking in with a solar vendor is the best you can do to make yourself a priority, but even then, you'll have to be more patient than usual if deliveries are somewhat late.

Oh, and did I forget to mention that prices are likely to increase in March again due to these shortages? Remember this a commodity market which is beyond control.

OK, so not the best news blog entry on solar power that I've ever written, but it is what it is...

Sass Peress

Posted by sass at 02:32 PM | Comments (0)

January 21, 2006

GT Solar Success

Dr. Kedar Gupta is a friend of mine who leads GT Solar, a world leading manufacturing company of turnkey solar power manufacturing lines.

Years ago, I met Kedar when ICP Solar was considering to launch a wafer plant in Montreal. In retrospect (don't you just love hindsight?) had we gone ahead, that plant would have a value today north of US$50Million, due to the huge demand for solar wafers worldwide.

Recently, Kedar made some changes and brought in strong management support to strengthen the corporate structure (and performance) of his company. Well, the results speak for themselves. He now has attracted two major funders to finance growth in GT Solar and will surely take GT far higher than he ever could on his own. He's had a partner in life (his wife) and in GT Solar (John) for many years, and will tell you (over and over) that he could not have done it alone.

It all goes to show that if you build a strong team, much good will come. ICP has been rebuilding for a while now and we're still going to continue to improve the team. In a changing organization we must treat with respect those who may no longer be able to play a part in its future, and ensure that those who join/remain are better suited to the new directions of a company. We've made many changes ourselves in the past month and more to come, yet what I can promise is that everyone who leaves will do so with the highest respect for their contributions. I have learned a lot from watching others (they say that the cheapest lessons come from learning through other people's experiences) and watching Kedar grow has been a pleasure and has taught me as well.

Congrats Kedar, it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

Sass Peress

Posted by sass at 12:46 AM | Comments (0)

January 13, 2006

Up, up and away....

Just when you thought prices might just stabilize, here they go again! January is the highest price level in solar in over two years, according to Solarbuzz, an industry web portal.

And yet a clear distinction must be made between grid and off-grid market pricing. The offgrid market is much more of a "retail" oriented market where price points like $19.99,$29.99,etc. are of importance to the point where pressure will be extreme before a retailer agrees to go beyond them. One such instance however just occurred with Canadian Tire, a Canadian retailer leading the push to sell solar products by big box stores, being forced to increase flexible product pricing for a CIGS product which has no relation to the silicon shortage.

How to explain this phenomenon? The only sensible explanation is that the vendor or some part of the supply chain decided to take advantage of the silicon price increases and raise prices. There is no shortage of CIGS materials which should have forced a retailer to increase pricing by up to 20%, which took product over the magical "X9.99" price points.

Now we know that there are many new entrants into the off-grid technology race coming into play in 2006 and this will force the off-grid market back down much quicker than the grid market, only because there is no regulation in the offgrid market in Europe or North America. As mentioned before, its African countries that are leading the push for IEC control over off-grid panels due to the fact that when people are depending on their solar panels for food, you don't mess around with ratings.

All to say that the expected stabilization in pricing has not yet occurred and that some are simply taking advantage rather than taking long term views. That is unfortunately the nature of the retail market where you have short term players whose only interest is bottom line immediate gain.

I frankly applaud Canadian Tire for the marvelous job their merchandise team has done in putting together such inertia behind renewable energy in Canada at retail. It started in 1994 and has really caught on in the most recent years. Hopefully the new technologies coming into play will permit the prices to come back down to levels where adoption by everyone from campers to boaters will not be hampered by price points which surpass the perceived value.

Sass Peress

Posted by sass at 10:53 AM | Comments (0)

December 15, 2005

Parisolaire?

Vive la France. I spent almost a year in the south of France on a student exchange when I had been selected to represent Concordia University in an MBA exchange program in the early 80's (does that date me or what?). The sun shines all year long in that area.

I remember playing tennis outdoors in January, and then all of Europe arrives starting in May (norwegians provided me with my "best memories"). Being a 22year old single guy, living in Cagnes-sur-Mer, it really couldn't have been better at that stage of life.

As with other sunshine stories, the one in France that is now developing only points upwards. Finally, some serious incentives are being put into place which could have France rival Germany soon for solar power installations. Seems that they are about to move forward on a serious renewables policy which will see major net-metering paybacks for systems installed, as well as tax rebates.

So when strolling along a shoreline in St-Tropez, the topless beaches may soon have major competition from the villa rooftops when counting the number of "solar" dishes...

Sass

Posted by sass at 08:25 PM | Comments (1)

December 11, 2005

L-IPO-suction

For any of you who has been following the solar IPO's of late, you'll find that while solar investors are able to cash out with substantial multiples on their initial investments, those who buy post-IPO are now finding that a certain plateau has been reached.

I suspect that investors do not want a repeat of the dot.bomb era where everything in sight was bought up and then some, only to have a huge crash. It is probably quite prudent of the investment community to be more careful this time as solar energy seems to be the new industry to invest in.

Many solar companies are finally profitable and that in itself is a positive sign for a maturing industry. However there remain the solar supply challenges which are reaping havoc on prices across the board, thereby putting margin squeeze on everyone in the supply chain. We all expect that continued growth in demand will continue to put such pressures for a good two years. And none of this counts in further governmental programs and initiatives worldwide to increase the use of renewable energy. Seems like every day there is another announcement of some government supporting solar energy technologies.

So if you feel that the IPO-craze has had the balloon sucked out of it, my suspicion is that while you won't see wild increases, you will still see a generally positive trend in the months to come...

Sass

Posted by sass at 02:12 PM | Comments (0)

November 19, 2005

SunPower SunPower make me a match..

If you know Fiddler on the Roof, you remember that it continues "find me a find, catch me a catch"...

The reference suits this week's IPO of Sunpower which jumped over 50% after day one of trading.

A division of Cypress Semiconductor, Sunpower offers a 20% efficient solar cell in a black color which integrates better into building facades vs the blue color and less efficient polycrystalline cells. Although slightly more costly to produce, the Sunpower product is capturing more and more market share as evidenced by their skyrocketing sales.

It all comes back to the discussion about what will shake up the market. Higher efficiency or lower cost...and the answer is clearly..both!

Sunny regards,
Sass

Posted by sass at 01:26 PM | Comments (0)

November 07, 2005

Two steps forwards, one step back...

Seems like some of the so-called "disruptive" technologies that have been announced recently are going to take a while before coming to market. A number of players focused on thin-film will eventually shake this market up.

This is part of the evolution of an industry. We see new players come in and some exit. Those exiting tend to be in the part of the value chain that is unprotected from shortage of supply at the moment. Those entering are newbies bent on changing an industry.

As change is the only constant, we shall surely hear more news in the coming months. Meantime, silicon suppliers are turning up production in response to demand so we should see relief in this century :) from higher silicon prices. The market does not seem to have been scared off by up to 19% price hikes. The momentum for solar is set. There's no looking back...

Sass
PS. I spoke about this and other neat solar topics on a podcast again with Ben Kenney of thewatt.com. You can listen to Episode 40 (even without your ipod at this link).

Posted by sass at 05:54 PM | Comments (0)

October 15, 2005

Energy Crisis looming?

According to the President of Venezuela, one of the OPEC member countries, there is not much more oil that they can produce. In an article published today he mentions that "Venezuela is at capacity" and he actually promotes the development of solar as an alternative.

Muchas gracias is all I can say. When the leaders of oil producing countries are calling for other energies to be invested in, now there's a switch! However, if it has gotten to this point, we need to be concerned about what happens mid-winter when the heating furnaces are runnning full tilt.

I have a feeling that anyone with solar panel capacity is going to be plenty busy in the coming years...
Sass

Posted by sass at 03:49 PM | Comments (1)

October 09, 2005

iSolar Nano or iNano Solar...

Everybody's gotta have one..an ipod Nano. Nano is the new thing. Small is the new big.

In solar, many are chasing "nanosolar" technology. In New Mexico a recent announcement of yet another "breakthrough" where they believe they will soon achieve a 10% organic cell.

The promise of disruptive technology is the one wild card that could change the whole supply chain bottleneck issue in solar today. Yet with each announcement, not a single plant has gone up in the past year which has achieved true production efficiencies sufficient to disrupt much. There are a few to watch on the horizon, yet these are still years away from mass production. By that time, I expect the silicon based industry will have caught up. Or will it?

It takes a hundred million dollars to plunk down a new silicon feedstock facility. To spend that you need to be assured of a large and sustainable market. What if tomorrow someone really can make a nanosolar organic solar cell for $1 per watt with no silicon? An entire industry is shaken up.

I suspect this can be one of the reasons that the silicon feedstock makers like Elkem have been so slow to react to the huge uptake in demand in solar power's workhorse, the silicon-based solar cell. They are taking a cautious approach realizing that this is an industry in its infancy despite several decades that still has some shaking out to happen. They don't want their investments to be the crumbs left on the floor.

I don't suppose you'd have a hundred million dollars lying around to invest in a new feedstock facility, would you?

Sass
solar panel

Posted by sass at 12:47 AM | Comments (1)

October 07, 2005

Solar Salespeople need not apply here...

Went to Washington today to attend Solar Conference seminars and trade exhibit. Met tons of people that we work with, worked with or may work with in the future. I love networking.

Unfortunately, there is a rather depressing feeling in the air when a bunch of salespeople are in the same room yet have nothing to sell. Everybody sold out. 2008 relief is when they think it begins to balance out. Wow! Two more years of this shortage stuff. Hey I'm not complaining because I secured supply for that time, but many others are up sh**s creek. Yet NOBODY has pricing security. That is one thing that this industry simply can't predict. It's like a serious commodity futures industry. You place your bets, you takes your chances.

Well there is one shimmer of light...the sun will come up tomorrow and the solar panels out there will create power! Other than that, the salesguys were all commenting on how rainy it was outside. Or was that just projecting what they were feeling inside?

Sass
solar charger

Posted by sass at 09:59 PM | Comments (0)

October 05, 2005

Will Congress give a solar hoot?

Following Kenya's decision to require IEC certification for solar panels to have access to its "off-grid" market, the USA is now looking at PV product certification in a much more serious fashion. Seminars are being held this week in Washington,DC at the Solar Power Conference to discuss the state of affairs in certification in the USA and how the industry will affect change at the federal, state and local levels. This seminar relates to issues which have been pressed by several legitimate solar panel manufacturers, including ICP Solar. I could not attend due to personal obligations, yet we do have access to what is being discussed and determined today.

While setting aside the subject of the relevancy of watts for battery applications, it all comes back to the simple truth of stabilized/minimum ratings vs. "initial" power. As my readers know by now, ICP is the first company worldwide to incorporate both maximum and minimum power at Standard Test Conditions in its new labelling for retail programs for thin-film products. It is indeed a major change for our company, yet its in keeping with our corporate values and quality-standard requirements. We are using an "evolving" rating system rather than completety dropping initial power simply because the market has not yet fully recognized that truth in advertising for solar ratings is imperative for the market to gain the confidence of its consumers (West Marine was the first retailer and they deserve kudos!). The solar associations are going to make this all moot when they get authorities to enact laws governing such claims. All "initial" power ratings will be forcibly dropped. This is not as far in the future as some people think (or would like) so I have prepared my company for this eventuality by starting the move towards stable ratings.

What US market studies are revealing is that the predominant issue is in the "off-grid" segment where retailers are most active and that is where the greatest lobbying efforts shall be expended. IEC is not currently required by retailers, although other users for off-grid applications of industrial nature which do not connect to the grid are demanding IEC certification for products. With the issue being mostly in the "under 50Watt" sector, it has not to date received much "air play". However, when a company from China is identified as falsely rating its panels in Kenya, then proceeds to dump hundreds of thousands of panels into the US and Canadian market, American industry's ears pop up. Isn't it ironic that what is now banned in Kenya is allowed in the USA and Canada?

I guess in the end, confidence comes from knowledge and comfort, but it is something that you have to build. The flipside is that once is it lost, it's hard to get back. A great salesperson can fake it only so long for their company. As with all things, accountability starts at the top.

Sass
PS. If you are interested to know more, contact your local solar association or take a look at this document which reflects the agenda of today at the conference's seminar on this topic. solar energy

Posted by sass at 08:58 AM | Comments (0)

September 29, 2005

Vivacious Valuations

Man has the market gone nuts or is it just me? 30X earnings on solar energy manufacturing companies? ERSOL over-subscribed by a multiple of three?

Qcells going public in a few days. Same story. Everybody wants in at any price...and then Solarworld takes a 20$ plunge in two days! Could it be that the world has said "enough"?

Buyer beware. Just make sure that if you invest in solar power stocks, you have a longer term view than a day trader. You'll surely go up in time, but the realities of the market soon take the bubble out of the fizzle. Some of these stocks ran up too fast and now will take a breather. Could be a good time to buy the right one...

Sass
solar power

Posted by sass at 02:04 AM | Comments (2)

September 20, 2005

Sun of a hybrid!

I read today that Japan is hogging hybrid parts! This indicates that the fight to offer consumers alternative energy products is heating up the parts supply chain far beyond solar. Its affecting real big entities like Ford that want to get into the game in a bigger way...or is this a ruse?

The easiest way to cover up the fact that you have not been ahead of the game is to blame someone else. So Japan was ahead of USA, Inc! There's no point in complaining that they were ahead as far as I am concerned. Rather it sounds like sour grapes towards competitors that were ahead of the curve.

Its up to American companies to embrace alternative energy technologies for their products and consumer solutions just as German and Japanese corporations have led the way in actually using renewable power on their headquarter roofs, fleets,etc...

America is a great power that, once it puts its head to something, can deliver greatness. The Japan Inc's advantage is that it works together following a government mandate. The issue for renewables, is that only in countries where government has taken the lead has renewables shined.

So I guess this means that Americans will either have to wait behind the others or wait for another President to be elected. George W. is not in my mind inclined to favor renewables over oil anytime soon!

Sass

Posted by sass at 04:32 PM | Comments (0)

September 17, 2005

Can't get solar chargers? You're not alone...

Everyone is doing their best to keep customers stocked these days but some vendors make more efforts than others due to the immediacy of the consumer's demand.

For example, a stationary solar project could always be slightly delayed due to solar panel shortage, but what about the consumer who clicks BUY NOW? If he/she can't, they may be lost forever to the dealer. I think the key is to be honest with your customers. Some may not like what you have to say, but you need to say it. Rather than aggravate by sticking your head in the sand, tell the truth and deal with it together.

Some retailers even go to the point of telling people when they will have the new stock. Northern Tools is a great example of this, where they tell customers who would call today that any 30, 80 or 125Watt modules are not in stock until January 2006. And they have been in that status for over 60 days, so just imagine the lost sales! I applaud their candor. They figure that either you'll buy another solar panel that is in stock or you'll at least know to trust them when they let you know what their situation is. Other dealers might just take your order and make you call and call and call!

Other "e-tailers" like Costco.com take an even more radical approach. They recently removed a competitor's offerings from their website since they could not ship the goods to end-consumers who would anxiously await their merchandise once their credit cards were charged. Costco's take on it is that if it can't be shipped, don't advertise it. With the moving target of deliveries these days, they simply don't want to have to keep updating availability.

From discussions with other vendors, like Sharp, they are sold out for 13 months! Guess some of us should have bought futures in solar energy company stocks! If a distributor is telling you otherwise, ask them for a delivery guarantee...and see them develop a nervous twitch!

There are some disruptive technologies slated to start in mid 2006. Let's hope they help alleviate this terrible situation for the industry otherwise the wild growth rates that we have been used to will not materialize as consumers flock to other power solutions.

Sass

Posted by sass at 05:31 AM | Comments (0)

September 07, 2005

Hurray Hybrids!

The time of the "green" car is arriving. Its' take off will depend on a combination of improved technology, continued elevated gasoline prices and more emphasis on green policies at government levels.

However for the "hybrid" to finally make the front page of MSN today, its a reflection of a change in paradigm. Sometimes its a shock event because gradual ones don't work. In this case, I have a feeling that when american consumers are paying what europeans have been used to for years, then the attitudes will start to get closer to each other's when it comes to environmental power technologies.

What this means is added pressure on environmental power technology producers to deliver the "real goods". The gadgety aspect of green power will be diminished only through "real" deliveries. It's along the same line of thinking as the watts vs "watts do u want" discussion in previous blogs.

To quote a sexy american actress of days gone by..."Hold onto your hats, its' gonna be a bumpy ride". I just haven't figured out how to move my hips like her when she said it on screen. :)
Sass

Posted by sass at 07:34 AM | Comments (0)

August 28, 2005

Will $100 per barrel make a difference...

So at what point do people actively start to search for alternatives to fuel? When are they driven to ask themselves..is there another way?

It's interesting to see the number of people suddenly driven to look at solar, when they previously found it a novelty and still "out there" in terms of choices. Website hits have grown 20% just in the last month alone. Calls to service lines are going nuts...but the problem is still there...supply is not able to match demand.

So add to this crazy situation fuel looking to go even higher than its current price, and you can see that its going to be a while before the cost of solar goes down...that is until capacity catches up or disruptive technologies that are not bogged down in the silicon bottleneck emerge.

For now, $100 a barrel fuel is looking quite possible and yet another driver of the industry. Now if only dealers could get panels to sell!

Sass
PS. CNN Update, August 31st. $4 per gallon predicted soon. Here comes the sun..

Posted by sass at 08:56 PM | Comments (2)

August 22, 2005

Solar Profit Sandwich

Silicon feedstock doubles in price. Solar cells go up by 30%. Retail prices gain only 5-20%. See the solar squeeze?

Everyone is complaining about it. What to do? Innovate. Separate. Distinguish....or die. With an industry short of supply, but consumers unwilling to pay much more, we all need to be aware of the solar price squeeze symptom. It will surely affect more at the higher end of the power spectrum where its already difficult to get consumers to fork out $40K for a solar-powered home system. Yet it will also affect the lower power spectrum as well. So the key to surviving in such a market, will be to distinguish.

When you have solar dealers operating at 5% margin on a solar panel, a full margin retailer sell that same solar panel and seem competitive. And nobody that I know wants to look uncompetitive! So the choice is to either take a serious margin bite and hope you can make it up on other things (ie. solar becomes a loss leader for you), or you innovate and separate by offering products, services, etc. that others don't.

The market is set to continue price hikes into 2006. We have not seen the end of it yet. Yet I feel that around second half 2006, we should begin to see the effects of new feedstock plants coming online and thus some relief. It will surely be welcome.

In a world where everything linked to oil (from plastics to transport) is going up in cost, the last thing we need is for renewable energy to become far too expensive to afford.

Sass

Posted by sass at 12:29 AM | Comments (0)

August 18, 2005

Max Power vs Min Power..is it martian to you?

Did you know that all amorphous silicon solar panels, which constitute the majority of panels under 20watts being sold by retailers in the USA, Canada, Europe and Australia, suffer from a reduction of power after soaking in light for periods of time?

In fact, the effect begins the second these panels see light. Within a few months, power output of such panels is reduced. In some cases, "sun-forced" degradation is almost 45% (according to University of California testing). In ICP's thin film panels, it's under 25%.

Now assuming you want to use your panels for years, it means that if you want to know your power needs for your application, you may need to increase your panel needs by up to 25% to be safe. This does not apply to the crystalline (blue) panels which are pre-stabilized in the manufacturing process. (The flip side is that ICP's thin film creates up to 20% more amps per watt than crystalline in real life so there is a balance which is close to net-zero with ICP panels).

This is why ICP is adopting a new labelling protocol which shows both initial and stable power (labelled as "max" and "min" under Standard Test Conditions). This is a huge shift for an industry that prefers to advertise its initial power simply because it looks like you are getting more for less. This is yet another step towards our "truth in advertising" mantra that you have seen me pushing for a while.

When we presented this to our major clients, they were concerned about how the customer would be educated. Some asked why we are still showing the "max" rating if it only lasts a short while, to which we responded that until the governments mandate the "min power" rating only, we can't be the lone wolf out there doing this.

Don't get me wrong, I will be delighted the day that the solar associations in America wake up and enforce such rating protocols! Meantime, we have to help retailers evolve to the truth while maintaining their perceived competitive position in the marketplace in which they play.

I know that legitimate solar manufacturers in the marketplace are applauding this position, so tis' not the sound of one hand clapping that you hear...

Sass
PS> No insult meant by the title to any martians reading this entry.

Posted by sass at 06:08 PM | Comments (2)

August 12, 2005

Kongratulations Kenya

The Kenyan government has just announced that ALL solar panels entering the country will have to be certified moving forward...YEAH!

This is the first government to finally recognize the need to validate off-grid solar panels. While most governments have held either IEC, CE or UL certification for "grid-tied" solar panels, there has been little regulation of panels that are not tied to the electric grid.

Let's hope that this is the beginning of a trend that translates into other countries following this example. I know this probably means that there are more false-rated panels now available for other markets, but as I've said before, the truth shall always prevail, it may just take a bit more time than some of us would like...

Off to view more Canadian Open tennis. Agassi was awesome last night...

Sass

Posted by sass at 08:49 AM | Comments (1)

August 11, 2005

Controller Cons

Just when I thought I had uncovered all the cons under the sun... another one is "forced" upon us!

The same group which brought to North America the most outrageous examples of solar panel rating exaggerations (ie. the less is more theory!) is now offering a "30Amp controller" which in fact does control 30Amps...for 30 seconds! In actual fact, the consistent amperage it can control is only 21Amps. So here you are, about to connect 25Amps of solar panel output to that control and POOF...it burns out, or worse, it ruins the other balance of system components you have purchased with hard earned money.

Oh well, here we go again. Hopefully none of you will be subject to the "fries" these controllers could create for your systems...if so, my suggestion is that you take the entire system back for a full refund.

I suspect that as the solar industry becomes more important, there will be greater regulation to force these types of groups out of the market...a guy can dream can't he?

Sass

Posted by sass at 10:46 PM | Comments (0)

August 05, 2005

The heart says "i want it", but the wallet says "ouch"!!!

It's that time of year when the industry presents its next year's product and programs to the dealer and distributor base. Normally vendors walk in and the customers are eager to hear about price discounts.

However this year, customers are more likely to want to know how we are going to supply! Luckily, we're in a good position due to long term supply contracts and our own manufacturing facility. But for others, there is a real problem. If you are a distributor or dealer, even if you have contracts, there has been and will continue to be shortages in the industry. Sharp, one of the industry leaders, just announced price increases of up to 19% on their modules in the USA market!

Recently, I was interviewed by thewatt.com's Ben Kenney on this topic. If you're interested, you can click here to listen in. Ben's questions centered around how the industry is going to handle the growth of demand as well as the issues of standards.

So for anyone wanting to buy solar, if you can get your hands on it, and you can verify that its made by a reputable maker (the manufacturer is not necessarily the same as the brand that appears on the solar panel), then my suggestion is that you grab it! Here's another link indicating what is happening in pricing now and expected to continue through 2006...

Regards from my "holiday",
Sass
PS> Sharp's brave announcement is attached here Download file

Posted by sass at 08:31 AM | Comments (0)

July 15, 2005

Watt is Power?

Power is a three part equation. Creation. Management. Storage.

Get any one of the three wrong, and your solution is scrapped. Solar panels create. Electronic power circuits manage. Batteries store. Use the wrong panel with the right other two components and it doesn't matter how much sunshine you get, it won't work. Use the right panel with the wrong controller, your battery either won't get the right juice or will even overcharge.

So the secret is in having the knowledge to combine the three together in the RIGHT manner. Where you gonna get that? At a discount retailer? Not likely. They'll try but the clerks changeover in the stores so often they keep the nametags for the managers to recognize them, never mind educate about solar! Don't get me wrong. They can move product, and sometimes tons of it. At the most basic battery maintenance product level, this should not be an issue. But when you get into power systems, beware that it gets dicey.

The more consumers realize that the power equation is not as simple as a "solar calculator" or some chart that shows you power consumption, the more they will understand that they need to work with brands they can trust (unabashed plug!) , with information accessible to help them make their purchase decision or to validate if there's an issue that comes up. No doubt the mass merchants are great at selling commoditized product or low priced units for simple trickle charging (we know because we supply Walmart with low priced units under the Coleman brand). Yet, if you really want to know what to buy, try the specialist retailer or educational webstore where you can deal direct with a technician. I'd rather to go a West Marine or Camping World or certified recreational vehicle dealer to find out what I need for boating or RV'ing, because I know the team will understand my needs, and also likely still be there if I return to the store. Same goes for solar. These folks get it! They understand that when a customer asks "what do I need", they need to understand the vehicle's battery setup, electronics management and only THEN can they suggest the right solar panel combination.

Power. A small word that is more complicated than we give it credit for. Shall we add temperature, light level, humidity and shading to the equation just to complicate it a bit more? What about where you live and the angle of the sun? Still think that a discounter can tell you what you need for your backup power or cottage or sailboat?

Don't let this scare you. ICP Solar is launching a whole new webservice and support mechanisms that will point you to the right solution in as little as three clicks. We're also partnering with the specialist retailers mentioned above to bring you innovative solutions that will astound you for their simplicity and value. Their customer service teams and store managers will receive in depth training by our "energizer bunny" sales trainers this fall as we launch a whole new line of product. It's all coming as part of a tremendous new ICP-wide initiative to take solar offerings to the next level...

Let our power give you freedom.

Ciao,
Sass

Posted by sass at 03:21 AM | Comments (1)

July 11, 2005

The squeeze is on...

Look at the latest pricing report from Solarbuzz and you'll see that the pricing squeeze continues, although the pace has somewhat lessened. I suspect this is more due to a "breather" than anything else. We're all expecting yet higher prices for silicon feedstock for 2006 and that will drive prices higher as well.

Will the growth in solar be stumped due to a few dollars higher price? I doubt that. We are caught between wanting to grow our consumer base through price drops and higher value. Yet despite the price of solar going up in the past year by over 4% at the retail level (industry average), sales have skyrocketed.

Those that are squeezed are therefore in the middle of the value-chain. If you don't make your own solar cells, you are surely feeling a margin pinch. Thin-film solar cells have not increased as much and are slated to begin mass production by a number of new players. In my humble opinion, the only sport in which it pays to be thicker is sumo wrestling! This explains the rush to thin-film production by such "thick film" veterans like Sharp Japan. New players with exotic thin film materials are bringing manufacturing capacity on board at current market prices very shortly. Their capacity will be limited at first but is due to rise significantly in the first quarter of 2006. How many technology industries do you know in which the cost of the same component goes up?

Retailers will push back on price increases, yet there will be no avoiding "some" pain. I suspect they are aware that they are playing in a commodity market which is out of stock for a good year to go, until such time as new capacity comes on board. So consumers will bear little brunt and those in the middle, well I simply suggest you "think lean". Put your company on a diet and consider how you can bring added value to add margins to your bottom line, or else be prepared to face a disappearing "bottom"...

Cofion cynnes ("yours" in Welsh..for my Bridgend/Wales team),
Sass

Posted by sass at 09:24 AM | Comments (1)

July 03, 2005

Kenya, a shining example of standards..

You might not yet know this, but Kenya has one of the most developed off-grid solar power markets in the world. Tens of thousands of Kenyan homes are now powered by solar panels from ICP and other makers for remote power to work their lights, fans, small fridges and communications.

Yet one of the most rampant problems in Kenya has recently become the same in North America. Manufacturers of amorphous silicon solar panels (aka: thin film) are over-rating their panels and causing mass deception and margin erosion for legitimate manufacturers.

As a result, Kenya's Renewable Energy association mandated Humboldt and University of California at Berkley to run long-term testing on the most prevalent solar panels in the market. Their findings mimic what we at ICP have been saying for close to a year. In essence, while most makers come within earshot of their ratings, only one solar panel maker consistently lies about their ratings.

So what does an industry do? Well, we know that in the long term, such practices will simply backfire. Whereas this maker used to have quite a strong position in Kenya, their market share has virtually vanished in anticipation of the publication of these results (see test results download at bottom of this blog entry).

Yet we should all look to Kenya to replicate these testings and demand that makers/distributors rate fairly. Now that Kenya has taken this action, the World Bank has received the testing results and will most likely banish this same maker from bidding on huge contracts it previously would win.

As time goes by, the example that Kenya has set will push ALL makers to be honest. And that is the greatest protection that we can give to consumers in a field which by its nature is already ambiguous.

In Canada, CANSIA (the canadian solar association) is also asking the government to get involved. You can find our edited version of their release at this link on the ICP site.

Arne Jacobsen, one of the testers from Humboldt, has promised to begin lobbying the marketers of the same false-rated panels in the USA and we know his influence will begin a process which will start to eliminate the practice in America. The report he's helped prepare also points to other very important points like delamination and water ingress which are major causes of panel failures, yet are not obvious to the first-time buyer at point of purchase.

Kenya, you led the way. Kudos to you. And special kudos to those other ethical companies like Solar Cells and Free Energy who performed well within the required ranges in these tests. Honorable competitors only serve to make the industry better.

Tata for now,
Sass

PS. Download the file at Download file

Posted by sass at 09:08 PM | Comments (1)

June 26, 2005

Solar Slate Stud

Which solar charging roof system interests you...the one that looks like a real roof...or the ugly blue one?

Sorry if my language seems skewed (force of habit that I may or may not lose) yet its a real question in many areas of the world. In Germany, there are communities now outlawing the placement of the blue panels on rooftops purely for esthetic reasons! So how is the solar world going to react? Hopefully by remembering that customers are people that demand far more than function.

Picture this...you see an ad for a solar system...you get all enthused because the government is going to help subsidize your drive to save electric bills and do something good for the environment (usually in that order). You gather all the information to present to your life partner...and then he/she looks at you and says "but is there a different color?". To date, most of the solar industry answers a big, blue NO!

At ICP we have developed a solar roof tile that looks like....a solar roof tile! It replaces the roof slate tiles used in Europe and more expensive homes in North America rather than be placed over it. At a solar show here in Freiburg, Germany (that's where I am right now) people were lining up to get information. They just couldn't believe that half of the tiles on our mocked-up roof were generating electricity. Stand ten feet away, and you could not tell which was solar and which was not.

Which brings me to the issue of how is the solar industry remembering that consumers have both "needs" and "wants". We "need" it to work...but we "want" it to look good! Few have captured this theme. 99% of makers or distributors put out functional product without considering the esthetics or "subjective" determinants of a consumer's reason-for-buying. This is the symptom of an industry which is currently sold out of capacity because "need"-based growth has outpaced supply. Why change if we don't have to?

My suspicion is that as capacity catches up to demand, the industry will be in for some wake-up calls. Everyone is running down the same path, building the same type of factory to make the same type of solar panels. That's the oil industry model..make it cheaper than anyone else and make a lot of it. I think that will be just fine...until someone offers consumers something they really want!

BIPV stands for "building-integrated-photovoltaics"..a fancy term which means that the building is equipped with materials that create its own power. Its an industry that is over twenty years old and is just now beginning to truly appeal to architects in their own language..form and appearance. ICP's solar tile is the first tile that can't be differentiated from an actual tile. We have not even received the necessary building permits yet and we have people lining up to try it offering their own homes as testing grounds. And they even want to pay for these tests just to be able to be the first ones on the block to ask their neighbors to "find the solar tile" (just like the game "find waldo" you used to play with your kids!).

If looks could kill...this solar tile stud has reminded me never to underestimate the power of "wow". Is there a lesson for the solar industry..perhaps listen to the customer. Your loyalty to a brand depends on far more than dealing with an educated salesforce. You may be somewhat satisfied today with delivery of your "needs", but that will only last as long as nobody comes up with a solution which gives you "wants". The minute you are offered what you really want in a solar solution, now that's when we will have listened to our customer!

Auf Wiedersehen für jetzt ("Tata for now"),
Sass

Posted by sass at 03:31 AM | Comments (3)

June 23, 2005

Watt is a Watt?

P=V*A. Most of us learned this formula early on in our educational cycle. Watts equals Volts times Amps.

In the solar industry, watts are used to measure output under standard test conditions (lab utopic conditions for a crystalline solar cell or module). My earlier blog entries address the issues of relevance of the testing protocol, so for this time, I want to ask you if you know what a watt is, what does it do for you, and if any other question is really important for you to determine your own needs? I'm a person who has been in the solar industry for 17 years running and I still can't see its importance for off-grid applications.

ICP has twice changed the paradigms of the industry and we're about to do the same. I won't be so naive as to post our strategy for 2006 because I know that our competition, which often mimics ICP, are avid readers of this blog and our websites. What I will write is that a huge shift is about to occur in the off-grid industry and we're going to lead the way.

I can already sense that retailers, who have become aware of the legal challenges of certain "characters" in our industry that are selling fake-rated panels, are going to move up the quality ladder in terms of offering products that are fairly rated if only because they care about their reputations. West Marine, the world's largest marine accessory retailer, dumped a certain vendor recently because of their totally faked ratings. When WM discovered the "watt fraud", they turned to ICP for legitimate solutions and are now enjoying tremendous uptake in customer satisfaction and sales rates.

The next step will be for retailers to govern themselves according to an agreed industry standard beyond simply the wattage rating. Costco, to their credit, agreed to testing panels BEFORE putting them on their shelves to verify conformity with ALL legal requirements. As a result, ICP was selected as vendor on this basis. The vendor they had originally chosen refused to even submit samples for testing...what does that tell you about their confidence in their product?

In Canada, Canadian Tire launched a new range of solar panels and I'm hoping that their Eliminator brand products will now meet their rated claims and that they will also advise consumers of the true final power output after degradation in the sun (sadly they are made by the vendor who was "outed" in Kenya). This is something we've been pressing them to do for over a year. In the USA, its my hope that Northern Tools, Brunton, Sportsman's Guide, Harbor Freight and others are all watching these moves and decide to join the trend towards equity in ratings, even if all they finally report are the true initial "watts" of their products. That would be a nice change towards truth in advertising. Despite the fact that it may mean significant changes to their current range of products, I do believe their growth in the industry will be enhanced by such moves to quality solutions.

Another paradigm shift is in the explanation of "total system cost". When you rate the cost of a solution, we will soon help you understand the "total" cost of the system which includes everything from parts to labor to warranty. There are hidden costs in using panels that degrade over time, labor to install and mountings that no solar vendor today tells you about. What you want to know is..how much is my total cost, how long will it last and what is it really going to do for me? So we'll even tell you savings compared to traditional energy sources!

And the last thing we'll do is to get rid of "watts" as a measure of anything to compare with. The speed of charging your battery for your particular application and how quickly your electronics or appliances discharge them, is what you really care about.

After all, Watt is a question, not an answer. You want answers. We'll provide them.

Tata for today,
Sass

Posted by sass at 09:43 AM | Comments (1)

June 14, 2005

Solar Stuffing vs Solar Solutions

As with any industry that is still in its infancy, sometimes we in the solar business tend to push the envelope when it comes to applications for solar power. Note a solar jacket which ICP was first in the world to market and quickly dropped. Why? OK so picture this..its a hot sunny day..you're walking around with your ipod...do you need to spend US$500 on a solar jacket that's going to cook you just so you can recharge your mp3 player?

Let's just say that this was one of our best bloopers in our history. It was a classic example of bleeding rather than leading. We simply were showing off a technology which was in fact getting a lot of attention (the hot models we employed didn't hurt getting the cameramen to come by our trade show booth!). But the challenge is more likely that you're just too smart! That's right folks..we haven't yet figured out a way to sell you stuff you just don't need that well! Or at least some people think so, because they're out there now still trying to flog it.

So what am I getting at? Well, basically that without any discipline, our industry will tend to turn you off rather than turn you on. If we don't provide you with valued solutions, we won't take as much of your money as we'd like to! If "there's a place for everything" is true, then solar has its place and its value. But we can't start to exaggerate it, lest we simply turn you off from using solar completely.

Take those solar garden lights for example. Many of you have bought them only to trash them after a couple of weeks of staring out your window at night hoping that they'll stay on long enough for the neighbours to go asleep and not notice that they don't work all night like they're supposed to. Did anyone think of the shading of trees, bushes, homes, soffits...when they designed these things? Or does each time you see a solar product it remind you of that failed attempt to use solar and turn you off? Now finally there are beginning to be solar lights that actually work well in any daylight condition...and may I say its in part to ICP's new solar cell products made specially for low light situations!

So how do you decide what will work and what won't? Ah, now if there was a simple answer to this question, we'd never make a purchase mistake. All I can say is that the old saying "you get what you pay for" tends to be true...except in solar you still have to watch out for the ripoff artists who lie about what they give you simply because you can't measure it, the well-meaning inventors who give you a "solar charger-in-a-whatever" that's 500times the price of a set of batteries, and the product developers that simply don't understand solar well enough but jump in because they think it will bring their items distinction in the marketplace.

Bottom line is still buyer beware, but even more so...developer know thy technology and thy customer. When developing a true solar solution, test it rigorously and consider how your consumer will use that device in every day life. If all you're selling is novelty, consider that like a honeymoon..it doesn't last forever, and the feeling that your customer will be left with may have lingering effects on an entire industry. The person who bought those cheaper solar lights that are not properly designed is not likely to turn around and spend thousands of dollars on a solar roof!

Does the truth come out in the end? Sure it does but it can be a long road. Paying attention to the delivery of value will make customers come back for more. I know because we've got thousands of logged testimonials from boaters, RVers and others who have used ICP solar panels to maintain batteries or for independant power. And yet still we have over 100 communications per day with our customer service center to help people make the right choices. Black and white. Sun and moon. Nothing in solar is so simple.
Have a sunshine day,
Sass

Posted by sass at 05:54 AM | Comments (0)

June 12, 2005

Silly Silicon Stifles Solar Sales

Take a moment to search for all growth predictions in the solar industry and most point to a figure of US$30billion by 2010. Well, a funny thing happened on the way to growth. A shortage of silicon feedstock occurred in the first half of this year severely stunting availability of everything down the food chain from wafers to modules. So the basic concern becomes: No silicon=no solar cells=no solar modules=no growth!

I recently attended the world's largest solar conference in Barcelona. One of the most interesting trade shows I'd ever been too, simply because most booths were doing "damage control" rather than selling. What can you sell if you don't have any supply of raw materials? And now, as a result of shortages and the rising price of silicon feedstock, prices of solar modules are skyrocketing. As reference visit http://www.solarbuzz.com/moduleprices.htm and you'll see what I mean. Do you know of any other high tech industry in which you pay MORE for the same thing one year later? How funny it would be if Intel announced price increases for the SAME chip?

ICP SOLAR is doing its best to satisfy clients, and thankfully our contracts for silicon-based solar cell supply extend well into 2006. For many of our own products, ICP makes its solar cells in the UK using a thin-film process avoiding the need for