June 28, 2006
BP Solar goes Nano...
Just as I'm writing that the big guys better get in on the game of disruptive solar technology, here comes an announcement from BP Solar on that very topic that they are getting involved in radically new ways of creating solar cells.
Though these are long term projects, the fact that a giant currently using standard wafer/silicon ingot technology is looking at this looks to me a radical departure from the conventional status quo in such large corporations.
So for now, BP Solar simply pours millions into research with competing disruptive technologies and then once the race parameters are more drawn out, determines whether to continue, drop or scale up its initiative. The maturing of an industry causes some interesting opportunities. By maturity, I hardly mean the product lifecycle, rather that some very serious investments are now appearing in solar in multiple amounts of the scales we've seen in the past decade.
Many predicted that while information was the disruptive industry of the 1900's, energy will be the one in the 2000's. So far, they look right to me!
Sass
Posted by sass at 12:31 AM | Comments (0)
June 23, 2006
Constructive Solar Disruptives
A few weeks ago, I blogged about ATS Automation's challenges in bringing "disruptive" technology to the solar arena. The one they are trying to productionize is a spheral solar technology which was originally created by Texas Instruments in the 1980's.
This week another announcement in the technology disruption arena promises to be far greater in scope and disruption to the solar industry as we know it. Nanosolar announced the financing for a 430Megawatt facility with US$100million. There are several things which make this annoucement extremely critical for the solar industry.
First, an investment of only $0.25 per watt produced is far below the current industry investments required to produce that much solar capacity. This means that the capitalization figure included in any costing is far less.
Second, they use a CIGS process. This has been known to be stable under extreme conditions.
Third, the cost per watt will be significantly below the crystalline players because of the roll-to-roll printing process utilized.
Fourth, we're not talking about a 20MW disruption (which is basically none at all) to the industry. We're looking at nearly half a gigawatt of new capacity. That is more than the entire industry produced just a few short years ago!
So it looks like someone is about to cause a major shift in how the industry is developing. Now what happens when you have giants like Kyocera, Solarworld, Sharp, Sanyo, BP etc.. in an industry with hundreds of millions of dollars invested in their own processes and are now challenged by a newcomer like this? Two things: crush them or buy them. Option B only occurs if Option A is not possible.
The lay of the land is about to get interesting for smaller players who will have to be eaten up or move aside. The stakes in the game has just been moved up a notch...
Sass
Posted by sass at 08:59 AM | Comments (0)
June 18, 2006
What do a father and leader have in common?
My daughter gave me a lovely poem in a hand-made paper shoe today. Here it is:
Daddy's Footsteps
"Walk a little slower, Daddy",
Said a little child so small.
"I'm following in your footsteps,
And I don't want to fall".
Sometimes when your steps are very fast,
Sometimes they're hard to see;
So walk a little slower, Daddy,
For you are leading me.
Someday when I'm all grown up,
You're what I want to be;
Then I will have a little child
Who'll want to follow me.
And I would want to lead just right,
And know that I was true;
So walk a little slower, Daddy.
For I must follow you.
If you think about leadership and of fatherhood, in this context, they have so much in common. It made me think of the zigzags, speed of pace and change I have taken my own organization through for a number of years and how difficult it must have been for many to follow or understand where I was taking them.
Interesting thing kids are...their language is so plain and straight. Thank you Emma...
Sass (and Dad)
Posted by sass at 05:23 PM | Comments (0)
June 12, 2006
Exotic Solar Entries
There was a day when you could simply say that thin film technology was "amorphous" in its composition. And yet in recent years ,many new combinations appeared such as CIGS, CdTE, CIS.
Of these "exotic" thin films, only CdTE seems to have been able to make itself work affordably, primarily by First Solar in the USA. Shell never grew its CIS plant and the only CIGS really on the market in any decent way is the flexible kind meant for specialty applications.
Amorphous silicon has stayed quite steady for the better of thirty years and yet now is about to change as well. We see Applied Films and Unaxis pressing their "micromorph" equipment solutions, while others like Kaneka have developed their own inhouse process and are already putting them out onto the market. These modules give the best of both worlds in terms of light exposure. The benefits of how well amorphous silicon captures low daylight with the stability factor of crystalline. In layman terms, the micromorph is a combination technology which uses a bit of crystalline and amorphous silicon in its composition.
The benefit of using an amorphous silicon backbone is that the technology and its profitable manufacturability are already quite proven. An with numbers showing a 10% stable rating, the panels will now be able to reach 100W stable (with known technology) within a couple of years. With a labor, materials and utilities cost of under US$0.70 per watt, you can then see why there are predictions that thinfilm will take 20% of the market by 2010.
This also creates the need for equipment makers to realize that "5MW" increments are no longer suitable for today's new environment. Whereas people used to shy away from building more than 5MW because the market had not quite accepted amorphous as a viable alternative in the grid (largest chunk of market) sector, that thinking no longer applies today. It means that platforms that build 20MW as a minimum are likely to be the most economical in the future.
With the entry of new exotic thin films from all over (Japan, Germany, USA, South Africa, Switzerland) we are going to see a revolution in the industry and finally a lot more momentum towards "real world ratings" than ever before as the larger thin film players vie for a level playing field when it comes to measuring solar performance.
As someone who has been in thinfilm for over 18 years, I'm excited by this prospect of a rush of new capacity in this area. Is it a threat to my company, ICP Solar? Frankly, I see this as a challenge in which we must make the right decisions to assure our success in the future.
Sass
Posted by sass at 06:23 AM | Comments (0)