May 31, 2006
Destructive Solar Disruptive
Ouch! is what we could hear ATS Automation shareholders across the world say when they heard of the over $60million write-down for investments in the Spheral Solar Technology they bought from OPG a few years ago. In the same release, they spoke of further investments into the Photowatt facility in France which is working at full capacity producing standard poly cells.
Spheral technology was originally developed by Texas Instruments and had been mothballed until a manager at ATS decided it was their ticket to success in Canada to develop and manufacture a new disruptive technology which would use a fraction of the silicon required. He definitely had foresight in terms of the shortage of polysilicon we are faced with today, yet they all vastly underestimated the difficulties in putting this technology into a "profitably reproduceable format".
Note the first word in the quotes.."profitably". Herein lies the essence of the challenge for any disruptive technology that will come into the solar arena. There are many new technologies that promise better low light power, better full light power, better shaded performance, etc. and in the labs, researchers are able to prove reproduceability day in and day out in small sections. The real key is that if the production methodology is not proven out, then you have a huge potential risk. In the case of Spheral, NOBODY had ever produced it properly. The japanese tried and failed.
I can understand ATS Automation thinking that given its long history in production automation, that it could do what it took to make the process work. However I suspect that they have been so aggressive with the writedown because they frankly no longer believe it can work. Down the tubes goes about $20M of Canadian government funding with this promised project.
Oh well, I guess we'll have to wait for another of the promising technologies to really undo the damage to the solar market that the polysilicon market is creating.
I am not happy that ATS is making these announcements. It doesn't look good on them nor on the Canadian industry or taxpayers. I do not revel in the pains of others (even competitors), yet it is a lesson that we need to learn from moving forward. It will surely also make venture capital partners wake up to the risks of investing in such disruptive technologies in the future.
Sass
Posted by sass at 06:53 AM | Comments (4)
May 27, 2006
Everest Peace Achieved...can we do the same?
Simply reproduced is an exerpt from the Everest Peace Project website proclaiming victory as 10 people (including Israelis and Palestinians) reached the summit:
Some final thoughts (for now!) - and Thanks Everyone!
May 25th, 2006
Hi Everyone,
I can’t tell you how proud I am and how I have appreciated all the encouraging and positive emails and messages that we have received over the last several weeks. Thank you!
The Everest Peace Project was just a thought in one person’s mind almost four years ago and now it has become a global project that has affected, inspired, and touched people across the world. Millions of people have now heard about our mission of peace and cultural understanding. The EPP website has been viewed by people from two hundred different countries; there have been hundreds of news stories across the world – including feature stories in Israel and in UAE, which reached over five million people.
In my mind, success was just in getting everyone together at base camp – having just one person reach the summit would have been icing on the cake. However, The Everest Peace Project summitted ten people and we all have made it back to Kathmandu safely. Never in my wildest dreams would I have thought we would summit so many. In a season that has seen a lot of tragedy we are very fortunate and blessed.
We made world history by assembling the most diverse Everest team ever – and had a summit push that consisted of Palestinian and Israeli men. Israeli David “Dudu” Yifrah – made a heroic and bold statement of peace when on the summit of Everest he unfolded a joint (sewn together) Israeli and Palestinian flag (see the picture on the site).
And it is not over…we have professionally filmed our Everest Climb for Peace and we will be making a full-length documentary film with the intention of having this shown all across the world. Stay tuned…!
I would like to first thank our heroic climbers and Sherpas who all risked their lives to prove an important point: that people from various faiths and cultures can work together cooperatively and accomplish amazing things and that in an atmosphere of peace and through friendship and teamwork anything can be done – and that even the tallest mountain in the world can be climbed.
I would also like to thank all of main financial sponsors:
Panasonic
Epson
Everest Technology Solutions
Jacada
The Camp
And our main individual sponsors:
Pete Richichi
Mark Princevalle
Rosalie Trumbull
Masa Maeda
Judy Chang
Gear and product sponsors:
Mountain Hardwear
The North Face
Trango
URI
Jansport
Thuraya
Alpine Aire Foods
Philips Environmental Products
ICP Solar
OR (Outdoor Research)
Princenton Tec
Easton
The Coleman Company (in association with ICP Solar)
Black Diamond
Dezart Cinematic
WebSideStory
Clif Bar
Aikimbo
OutdoorRetailer.com
Explorer's Web
MountEverest.net
Thanks everyone for making this historic event become a reality!
From Kathmandu, Nepal
Love,
Lance Trumbull
Posted by sass at 07:19 PM | Comments (0)
May 23, 2006
Oh no! The solar CEO is blogging again..
Seth Godin warns CEO's about blogging in his posted article in which he advises that a CEO must be prepared to walk the talk if he/she expects visitors to his blog to get any value and if he expects to be driving value for his corporation. After all, if he is not doing that, then why blog at all?
Seth says that a CEO must exhibit at least four of the five traits of: Candor, Urgency, Timeliness, Pithiness and Controversy for his blog to add any value in the world of blogs.
So I went back and began to re-read the blogs I have posted since last July. I came up with the following conclusions:
Candor- I believe I have been nothing but and so give myself a passing grade here.
Urgency- Well, not everything I write about is urgent, so I'll say that here it is questionable as to whether my blogs carry this definition well.
Timeliness- I have been accused of letting cats out of the bag too soon and so here I believe I pass. (My understanding is that our competition made a habit of reading my blogs to help decipher ICP Solar's future strategies!).
Pithiness- I have no clue what this means, and so I will say that I fail (to be safe!)
Controversy- I believe that my stance on a variety of things has sometimes been controversial (as measured by the "how could you write that" comments I have sometimes gotten from my team).
And so in conclusion, I believe that I still have a long way to go before this blog can be construed as tremendous value to ICP Solar. For the moment, it's an outlet that has had a tremendous effect on myself and helped raise my game as a CEO.
Sass
Posted by sass at 03:30 AM | Comments (0)
May 19, 2006
Apple pleads the Fifth...
It was bound to happen sometime. Manufacturers like Apple and Sony creating flagship stores in very sexy environments like New York's Fifth Avenue.
Why spend so much money on a high ticket neighborhood? Its all in the name of distinction. The fact is that while many companies flog their wares competing on price, Apple and Sony have taken a decidedly different tack, going the route of innovation and branding.
Would you ever expect Apple to launch an uncool product ever again? Doubt it. So Apple's brand has come to represent everything your heart wants that your wallet can hardly afford! Yet they deliver a very decent product so that whereas it may not be the latest technology, it doesn't matter. It makes you feel great.
And so now you can shop for an iPod in Apple's own store. What would I expect? Youngish clerks, hip, knowledgeable, attentive and fun. A clean environment which is minimalist in its decor, yet oozes that great feeling you want to have in the presence of your technology marvels.
If only the ipod's casing was made with the power plastic being developed by my friend Howard Berke's team at Konarka...hmmm..hold the thought!
Sass
Posted by sass at 09:40 PM | Comments (1)
May 18, 2006
Ain't no mountain high enough...
The Everest Peace Project is nearing its goal of attaining the summit of Mount Everest.
Here is a picture which says it all to me and of which I believe they should all be proud:
I am so happy that ICP Solar chose to participate with its partner Coleman in this adventure. Amazing how a common challenge can rally people together, setting aside thousands of years of difference between them to overcome a common hurdle.
The distinction between trust and faith is blaring here for all to ponder. While the climbers most probably had faith in each other's ability to climb the mountain simply because the leader chose them, trust only came as they got to know each other and believe that one would cover the other's back. Interesting parallel to life, wouldn't you say?
Sass
Posted by sass at 10:45 PM | Comments (0)
May 17, 2006
How to lose people off your website in sixty seconds..or less!
Tonight my wife and I went car shopping on the web. Well kudos to Volvo. They got it with an interactive site that was entertaining yet did not take loads of time to work through in order to figure out where the information you wanted to know resided, what the options were, what the car looked like with different colors and how much it might cost.
And then there's BMW Canada's website. If I were to rename it, the best I could think of is "How to lose an interested customer in 60 seconds or less". After 5 minutes, we still could not figure out how many seats their SUV held! Look for a yummy mummy with four kids, a golden retriever and a cat, the number of seats are critical information! So if its "all about the information" (said Ben Kingsley), then website creators had better loading up large pdf files that nobody wants to download and start remembering that their mandate is ultimately to...sell!
Tom Asacker (www.acleareye.com) recently wrote about the fact that too many people are hung up on "marketing" without understanding that its all about SALES! Marketing doesn't pay the piper, ringing the cash register again and again will!
Anyways, you make up your own mind. I now know what I want fixed in the ICP SOLAR site...pdq!
Sass
Posted by sass at 12:11 AM | Comments (2)
May 16, 2006
Succulent Solar
It's official. Solar is PC. Solar is sexy. Solar is "cool". When your kids come back from school talking about solar, not because they are the children of a solar CEO, yet more because they are being taught the wonders of solar in class, then you know that Solar has hit its time.
Two years ago, my eldest son Ethan and I built a dye-sensitized solar cell from blackberry juice and titanium dioxide. It was a really neat solar experiment which anyone can buy online. Today there are various versions and are found in various school curricula and educational websites.
And when your reps, vendors and others ask you when they'll be able to invest themselves through ICP SOLAR into this wild ride market (tic toc?), it means that we truly are operating in a world where solar is no longer "on the edge".
Being so proud of my team which has been so tenacious in its belief in our vision, I must say it's so easy to wake up these days to the sunshine around me, particularly when I have such a great partner (Arlene) who just lights up any office she operates in...
Sass
Posted by sass at 10:18 PM | Comments (0)
May 13, 2006
Solar Silicon Surprises
Silicon feedstock coming back online in 2008, yet vendors of cells requiring 8 year commitments. Why? I believe its because they know that there will be a flood of inventory starting end 2007 and that the market will be more competitive.
The issue is that if all the silicon feestock is committed, it doesn't matter if there is more cell capacity, the price won't budge. In come disruptive technologies. CIGS on stainless that promises 12% efficiency for less than $1 per watt. Amorphous with 8% stable on flex material for $2 per watt.
The fact is that we will have a major market disruption in 2008. Commodity price pressure will squeeze any cell maker who does not have long term contracts for both supply and demand. Yet nobody is perfect and there is no way to perfectly balance those two. The issue will be therefore how to limit damage to the bottom line.
This is when the tide may turn against anyone holding factory capacity without a guaranteed outlet. Vertical integration looks smart now, yet will it be when there is too much capacity? Or will the added demand upsurge continue to completely absorb whatever capacity the industry will bring on.
No matter what, this is going to be an interesting ride. Judging from the excitement at Kona's Hawaii IEEE Solar Conference (from which I just returned), the industry is getting ready for major change. Anyone who knows me understands how much I embrace change. The issue is not how it affects you, but how you can use it to affect your world.
Enjoy the weekend. Here in Montreal they are predicting rain, yet I am sure I'll manage to find some sunshine somehow.
Mahalo (thanks in hawaii),
Sass
Posted by sass at 12:49 AM | Comments (0)
May 11, 2006
Hawaiian Holdup
OK, so here's the deal. You give me an 8 year guaranteed purchase order, with a deposit for two years worth. I return the deposit in 1.5 years yet you must replace that with another deposit for the following two years before I do so.
That is the bottom line talk today of crystalline cell makers. And by the way, prices can be increased at anytime at their full discretion. If you're wondering what kind of industry this is, actually, despite 18 years in it, so am I.
The whole thing stems from the cost of a new silicon feedstock facility. When you pay hundreds of millions to put up a 5000tonne facility, you need assurance that the industry for which you are doing so gives you a handsome return. It is not abnormal and totally fair.
The challenge is that there is no "market" control in this which compares crystalline to other technologies. Its almost like they are still operating under old premise that no technology will replace crystalline for the coming 5 years or so.
I have a strange feeling that, as with other markets, the solar market is about to be radically spun on its head. Never have I seen so many new technologies coming out all at once. And when ONE of them hits big, the crystalline folks are in for a surprise.
So "bottom line", hold onto your hats. The price of solar is not about to come down anytime soon (in fact yet more increases were announced in pricing here at the conference) and the fact is that they are totally right in doing so because when the market flips on the suppliers, they will be back to an oversupply, competitive situation.
What does this bode for solar stocks? They are secure for at least two years IMHO. After that, it will be the strong that survive and the weak will be taken over. Having complete vertical integration has its merit for the next two years. After that, some companies need to make sure that their markets are growing fast enough to handle their own capacity improvements otherwise they will be laden with huge capital investments in a market which takes no prisoners.
I'm leaving Hawaii now, so a final ALOHA to all my friends (particularly those that took care of my wife on her birthday while I was away)...
Sass
Posted by sass at 11:53 AM | Comments (5)
May 10, 2006
Aloha Sunshine
Here in Hawaii at the IEEE solar conference.
Its a bit less impressive than what I thought, with lots of people simply complaining about silicon feedstock shortages and some chinese companies that have no inventory or anything to sell right now simply gaining more exposure to the industry.
However what strikes me is that there are a lot more booths touting amorphous silicon and other thin films as the solutions of the future. So whether by default or by design, thin film is here to stay. Even some of the big names like Sharp are getting well into thin film as strategies of the future.
This can only be good news for the thin film industry. More players means more control means more regulation means a more level playing field.
Aloha.
Sass
Posted by sass at 04:26 AM | Comments (2)
May 07, 2006
Solar Down Under
I'm in Australia at the moment (on way home) and can't help but comment on how progressive the "off grid" uses of solar PV are in this country. Given its tremendous amount of annual sunshine, the use of solar has proliferated in the "off grid" market in the recreational spheres as much or more than in any "grid supported" markets worldwide. I am sure that on a "per capita" basis, the Aussies take the prize for use of solar.
One prime example is the RV industry. Whereas we can quote low single digits for OEM RV makers vehicles that roll off the production line with a solar panel, here in Australia, 85% of vehicles come off the line with a built-in solar charger. That is how progressive dry-camping use of solar energy already is. Now of course that means that much of the aftermarket for RV solar panels is retrofit to units which never had a panel, it also points to how progressive RV owners in Australia are. You can bet that makers would not be putting panels (they don't usually spend a single penny they don't have to) on vehicles if the demand was not there.
I'd go as far to say that in Australia today, it's an EXPECTATION to have a panel with your RV. Hopefully that expectation begins to be "exported" to other countries so that OEM's can begin to use solar PV as well. In the context of a challenging environment for RV use (high gas prices), I believe that progressive makers should begin to offer PV solutions as a way to show consumers that they don't have to break the bank to live life off the grid in their RV.
Sass in OZ...
Posted by sass at 03:59 AM | Comments (2)