April 27, 2006
Different solar models produce different operating results...
While Sharp posted higher net revenues THANKS to its solar division (in part), Evergreen Solar recorded higher losses (despite higher sales) in its first quarter. Evergreen's stock was set back to its February 06 levels, while Sharp's increased.
In both cases, the revenues were higher than expected, yet the interesting difference is how the companies' bottom lines are being managed. Evergreen has not yet had one full year of positive gross margins, yet it continues to participate in new technology funding and new ventures (ie. EverQ). Sharp on the other hand, has reached profitability despite some funding towards thin film facilities (nothing revolutionary, just standard thin film materials).
At some point, investors in Evergreen are going to want to see a decrease in R&D and sustainability in profits. I hope the management has that in mind. I have tremendous respect for them and their accomplishments to date. Partnering with Qcells is something that ICP Solar has done as well, as they are masters at manufacturing models. They can't hope to be the next "Amazon" or "Ballard" because those two commanded such market leads, that taking on huge losses for a few years was ok. In the solar industry, Evergreen does not command such a lead.
In general, the solar stocks have stopped the meteoric rises, the question becomes who is going to adjust downwards more than the rest. I would submit that those taking focused or more conservative (ie. traditional) approaches to business will suffer the least in a corrective stage.
Sass
Posted by sass at 05:58 AM | Comments (0)
April 26, 2006
A true leader speaks out for solar..
Mickael Gorbachev is someone who has made his legacy a long time ago. As the person who most influenced the lead out of the USSR into the current federation of independant countries that used to comprise the old Soviet regime, he has shown his ability to see the future and take action.
So you can imagine my pleasant surprise when I read today that he is calling on the G8 to create a $50Billion fund to help fund solar power across the world.
When you consider how much government subsidy has gone into hydro, nuclear and oil, the call from a leader to the world governments is only to actually even up the playing field. The other technologies are things of the past if solar is funded to the same extent. Not only is it renewable, it can last forever.
Let's see which government takes him up on his call. Now imagine if Bill Clinton would join him? Two former leaders of the most powerful governments in the world calling for more funding for solar. One must dream big...
Sass
Posted by sass at 08:44 PM | Comments (1)
April 22, 2006
Google goes green...
Woke up this morning of International Earth Day and found that Google's home page had "gone green". The logo features a range of solar panels and a wind generator. It's no wonder when on the same page we see stories about gas prices hitting all time records!
Other sites like Yahoo are also focusing on environmental stories today. Even the US government has a portal now dedicated to Earth Day.It follows the trend of various IT leaders now getting into renewables. From silicon microchip to silicon solar panel. The industries are actually quite close in their usage of silicon feedstock as a base material. One manages knowledge. One manages power.
Hmmm.....and they always said "knowledge is power". Have a great Saturday...I'm off to watch my "50th ranked" son Joshua get more tennis training...
Sass
PS. My solar blog has reached #11 on google's listing when searching "solar blog". I wonder how high it will go now that I've featured their logo on my blog :).
Posted by sass at 07:35 AM | Comments (1)
April 21, 2006
What goes up...
...is still going up!
Once again I find myself puzzled at the meteoric rise of solar companies valuations. From 6.6times sales to 58 times revenues, whichever measure you pick, its in the stratosphere.
However we can see some people getting nervous and others "smoking out" the commodity plays. Those companies which are depending on a purely logistical advantage are being whacked back down when they underperform on margin. Those companies which are showing more mature business strategies are continuing their rise. And those which are showing innovative approaches (a la horses for courses) are continuing very very strong gains.
Who gets left behind? The bottom dwellers. The ones who have not much of a plan yet can still make sales. Those who have a "me too" plan. Those who depend solely on chinese cost advantages (temporarily). These companies have no future. They will be swamped by innovation shortly. They will simply have no place to turn. As the market gets smarter (and wise to them) they will disappear. Who am I talking about? Mostly asian companies who thought that simply "being in solar" was enough to be successful. Those that launched me-too products figuring that there is a sucker born every minute.
We see dozens upon dozens of portable solar chargers, standard solar modules,etc. coming out of China today in the consumer market. Still nobody gets it. The customer is getting wiser and is having more choice. Get wise or get out.
In a sense, this is simply a sign of a maturing market. What happens then? The crazy rises will temper. They will perhaps even pull back for a while. Yet the "boat has left the port" when it comes to solar and the future is only going to get better for those that have a real knack to innovate, develop and sustain.
Sass
Posted by sass at 11:48 PM | Comments (0)
April 12, 2006
Power for Peace
It's all in the title. ICP Solar has sponsored the Everest Peace Project as the primary supplier of power. We've supplied both Coleman and Sunsei solar panels (depending on application) and will look forward to hearing how our products stood up to the "Everest test".
This project is about peace. It features climbers who are Israeli and Palestinian, amongst others, joining together to promote unity and harmony in the world. What better opportunity for us to join in and support it.
When I heard about the combination of the challenge and team member make-up, I couldn't help myself. We donated larger Sunsei panels and our new charge controllers for base camp, and the lighter Coleman self-enclosed portable units for the higher camps where less equipment is used yet just as important to have recharging power.
Kudos go out to Lance and his team for this effort (they are currently caught in the strike in Indonesia yet believe they will get through to their ultimate destination shortly) and to the ICP Solar team from Dallas to Montreal for making the delivery of panels to them in super speed.
I can't wait to see the first pictures. I'll post any that pop up of our solar system at base camp Mt. Everest on my solar blog. If this project just helps a few palestinian and israeli kids hear the wonderful story of how two adults of their community worked together in harmony towards a common goal, and if that story moves them to a more peaceful position, then these will become just a few more small steps which continue to support the momentum towards the ultimate destination of peace between their people.
Sass
Posted by sass at 11:39 PM | Comments (0)
April 11, 2006
Imposter Podcast..
Arne Jacobsen, a researcher at Humboldt University in the USA, recently did an online interview with Ben Kenney. Ben runs www.thewatt.com and podcasts worldwide the interviews that he does with various people regarding power and energy. He covers everything from oil to renewables in his website.
In a particular interview, podcast yesterday, the second half was dedicated to Arne's testing of amorphous thin film solar panel activities. Arne's testing was instrumental in ridding the Kenyan market (highest per capita user of solar in the developing world) and he is now doing similar testing in North America, as I had reported months ago.
As opposed to testing which ICP Solar has commissioned through various independant labs before, this is an initiative which comes from Prof. Jacobsen, and will be shortly publicized in its entirety, including the naming of the brands involved.
The initial results that he has reported in the podcast indicate that only Unisolar and ICP Solar (Sunsei brand) provide the rated power in the amorphous thin film modules that he has tested. The podcast was too short to mention the other brands which are only delivering up to 60% of their claimed power (even under ideal conditions), yet he clearly indicates that an amorphous maker in China is responsible for the propagation of the fake-rated panels.
Frankly speaking, it has often backfired when we ourselves "outed" the fakes, because either the customer did not care or had another agenda at hand (profits before quality). What is interesting for me is that what I've been telling the industry for over 3 years is now finally being confirmed independantly. Others are going to follow Arne's footsteps and the publicity which we have been waiting for is finally coming to play.
How the various government consumer protection agencies react to these results will be most interesting indeed. In the end, we only have our reputations which will go with us wherever we are. In a world where nobody is perfect, only those that continue to improve will improve their brands.
As I no longer see those who engage in such activities to be our competition, the road to success for myself and our organization has been clearly defined three years ago and despite doing so at tremendous cost, we will stay that course, knowing who WE are.
Sass
Posted by sass at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)
April 10, 2006
Renewable Robots
The amazing thing about what's going on in the solar industry is that all kinds of new applications are surfacing, and will continue to surface for two main reasons: people have discovered that solar WORKS as a power renewing source and new technologies will soon emerge to permit new recharging capabilities neverbefore thought of.
In the case of the solar robot, aka "Cool Robot", this device treks across the arctic being recharged by solar cells on all four sides (given the angle of sun it makes perfect sense to put them on the sides as well). It is an autonomous robot which is designed for summer use in the Antarctica and Greenland. While the army is obviously testing this to permit autonomous drones to lead the next invasions and be repowered each time the sun shines (I can now imagine the enemy developing solar blankets that can be thrown over the solar drones as a response!) the fact remains that from the armed forces experiments can come so many other great uses for such a device. Moving telemetry, weather stations, etc, could all be recharged and moving at the same time.
Posted by sass at 05:44 PM | Comments (0)
April 04, 2006
Detroit Delusions...
I'm here at the SAE Conference, the world's largest automotive engineering trade show. Sadly, the industry's woes are reflected in a poorly attended show, both on vendor and customer side.
The auto industry is a good example from which the solar industry can learn a few tricks. It is continuing to undergo change despite its maturity, as the customer dictates who will survive and who won't. If we look at how Detroit is losing out to Kentucky, simply because that is where the Japanese established themselves, then we can see mirrors in what is going to happen in solar, once the "glut" hits.
The fact is that General Motors commands a big part of the mood in this town, so you can imagine just how it is right now. While Chrysler was gobbled up by a European (Daimler), Ford made a good move with Mazda, GM is laden with far too many "american" divisions, each with its own costly infrastructure, doubling up charges and creating a huge, giant sucking sound of money. Analyzing why they got there would be a great lesson for the solar industry.
When the Japanese began to invade the western markets, they did not do so with shoddy quality. They did it with "fair" quality, yet at a great price. Then they moved up the ladder as they established themselves to be much more "in tune" with consumer demand than the american counterparts. And finally they took over the "lifestyle" approach of the Europeans when they were able to make cars to fit every lifestyle from the budget to the super rich.
Meantime, Detroit struggled to find itself. The lesson here is about the customer and what happens when a paradigm shift occurs due to a disruptive event. In the case of solar, I believe that disruptive event (on a macro basis) will be a glut of cells available post-2008 due to new disruptive technologies coming into the industry pool. It will then be up to each company to have created an image for itself within the crowd and a clear path to exceeding expectations each time it rises up the quality and feature ladder. Flat, standard modules may be the kings now, yet when new technologies with different colors, form factors and usability appear, they will be simply left to the commodity players.
Don't get me wrong, there is a commodity play in power, as the oil and utility companies prove out so often every day. However I also believe that this industry will utilize some of the lessons from the car folks and create targeted applications for specialized cell formulations. Now that's when the buzz about who has figured out the customer will likely dominate the solar industry, rather than the buzz about the shortage of cells that we are currently living.
Sass
Posted by sass at 07:23 PM | Comments (0)