January 28, 2006
Green Energy uprising?
This week's elections in the Palestinian territory marked a major shift and upheaval in Middle East Politics. While the obvious to all is the surprise of the Hamas organization taking over as lead political authority in their territory, there is a deeper meaning to this all that I'd like to explore and its relation to what is happening in the solar power industry.
The fact is that Hamas is a popular party. They were voted in democratically. Without taking any sides in this case, I am simply pointing out that the people have spoken and no force can hold down the groundswell caused by the grassroots of a society when it gains enough momentum to become its collective will.
Same goes for solar power. Years ago it was scientists and treehuggers. Now, it's the business of power. And yet much of the reason it made the transition is due to the political will of some countries to revolutionize power. They had needs that were not being fulfilled. Countries like Germany and Japan where the density of population is high and the cost of having bad air in a small area is therefore very high. This led to the need to develop alternative energy programs. Through them they drew investment and job creation, but most importantly, industry leadership. The lead that these two countries have in the world race to engage renewable power will only be caught up to in decades.
In comes California...finally! Again with a tremendous grassroots support, Governator Arnold knows he can get through Renewable Energy programs like the massive one he has proposed (and hopefully will use our Sunsei Construct solar slate!). Adding $3Billion of funding to a $10billion worldwide industry puts one helluva dent in solar power demand!
So as we see the democratization of the Middle East (arab sector) through organized elections in the Palestinian Territory, Iraq, Lebanon (and even municipal ones in Jordan), we see the democratization of power (the choice of the people expands). I truly believe that as the availability of solar power increases, the more people will demand it as their source of energy, and eventually it becomes a great circle of growth for all those involved in the industry.
The "establishment" utilities therefore are faced with two choices..jump on board the groundswell of popularity or become a dinosaur. Funny how power and politics are so similar?
Power to the people.
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 10:47 AM | Comments (0)
January 23, 2006
Silicon Supply Squeeze Strengthens...
If anyone thought that the New Year would bring price relief and supply loosening on the crystalline solar module/ solar cell side, fuggetaboutit! The most recent forecasts for solar power industry show a 5% projected annual in 2006, after consistent 25%+ years for as long as I can remember.
In a recent article published in Renewable Energy Access you can read all you'd hate to about the shortages which will become more acute in this coming year and into 2007, with relief only foreseable in 2008.
This does not bode well for retailers that have on-time delivery demands nor consumers who are ordering online only to find their products shipped months later. The fact is that given a choice, the solar panel vendors will ship the large contracts (which have substantial penalties associated with them) rather than a pallet to their local retailer.
So for the next two years, get what you can and count your lucky stars you got it! Locking in with a solar vendor is the best you can do to make yourself a priority, but even then, you'll have to be more patient than usual if deliveries are somewhat late.
Oh, and did I forget to mention that prices are likely to increase in March again due to these shortages? Remember this a commodity market which is beyond control.
OK, so not the best news blog entry on solar power that I've ever written, but it is what it is...
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 02:32 PM | Comments (0)
January 21, 2006
Power Tragedies...
Today, yet another set of miners died in the USA, all in the name of the pursuit of energy.
If you think about the benefits of renewables, we can't ignore two specific areas where solar power delivers far more than traditional carbon emitting sources: safety and security.
There are no mines to dig, oil wells to drill or dams to put up with solar power. Imagine the day when each house becomes its own solar power generator. You'd eliminate the risk of electro-magnetic fields caused by power lines that are close to where your kids play. Nothing could be more safe.
As for security, think about the lives lost in sea drilling platforms, mines or oil pipeline explosions, that you have heard about just in the past year. And it would take just one nuclear power plant to be successfully targeted for a major disaster to occur in our homeland.
The case for solar power becomes even more compelling than a simple environmental one. The fact is that there is no safer nor more secure power source than the sun, millions of miles away, providing the photons that solar power cells can convert into something that will provide you and your family the warmth, light, breeze, or entertainment power you seek.
Meantime, we all sympathize and extend our wishes of condolences to those whose loved ones have perished in the pursuit of cheap, polluting power.
With the power source choices that our society now enjoys, we must ask ourselves "why" we continue to pursue the "dark" side of power.
Sass Peress
PS. I will not use this message to promote anything my company does. I just want us all to think hard about the policies we want our governments to pursue in the name of providing us with the energy we need.
Posted by sass at 05:36 PM | Comments (0)
GT Solar Success
Dr. Kedar Gupta is a friend of mine who leads GT Solar, a world leading manufacturing company of turnkey solar power manufacturing lines.
Years ago, I met Kedar when ICP Solar was considering to launch a wafer plant in Montreal. In retrospect (don't you just love hindsight?) had we gone ahead, that plant would have a value today north of US$50Million, due to the huge demand for solar wafers worldwide.
Recently, Kedar made some changes and brought in strong management support to strengthen the corporate structure (and performance) of his company. Well, the results speak for themselves. He now has attracted two major funders to finance growth in GT Solar and will surely take GT far higher than he ever could on his own. He's had a partner in life (his wife) and in GT Solar (John) for many years, and will tell you (over and over) that he could not have done it alone.
It all goes to show that if you build a strong team, much good will come. ICP has been rebuilding for a while now and we're still going to continue to improve the team. In a changing organization we must treat with respect those who may no longer be able to play a part in its future, and ensure that those who join/remain are better suited to the new directions of a company. We've made many changes ourselves in the past month and more to come, yet what I can promise is that everyone who leaves will do so with the highest respect for their contributions. I have learned a lot from watching others (they say that the cheapest lessons come from learning through other people's experiences) and watching Kedar grow has been a pleasure and has taught me as well.
Congrats Kedar, it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 12:46 AM | Comments (0)
January 17, 2006
Metamorphous...
There is a lot of talk in the industry about the new up and coming thin film players, yet it's interesting to see that the backbone of the technologies are pretty constant with what was available in the 1980's.
Either CIS or amorphous silicon are the base technologies. There is of course CdTe, yet people are really shy to get into that given the environmental concerns. (While its true that the amounts per solar module are minute, call it a perception thing!).
At the moment, it seems that there is greater interest in production processes which bring down the cost of CIS, a stable thin film recipe. Whereas the cost of deposition of amorphous silicon is a fraction of most CIS processes, some people are beginning to make noises that they feel they can compete on a cost basis per square foot, not just per watt. Obviously with its stability, CIS would be a winner in this case.
Some makers of amorphous silicon are beginning to experiment with micromorph (introducing the stability of thick film crystalline into a thinfilm production process) yet that is still not in the production rollout phase which some had predicted years ago. For some reason, no major breakthrough in capacity have been announced anywhere.
So it is just a matter of time before a few of these horses (expect some of them to simply not make it due to lack of depth of management and/or poor technology when compared) come into the public domain and change the paradigms. A couple of entrants are scheduled to begin deliveries in March so this is when we'll see the reaction of the thick film industry, in combination with supposed increases in capacity coming online. And as new ones come in, my little spy tells me that a couple of older thin film makers are about to close shop, due to the simple fact that their cell structure is too costly to make or their manufacturing process is simply not robust enough...
I just don't know. California is about to mimic the giant sucking sound that Germany has been towards any solar capacity for years...and I believe the market will continue to grow exponentially with the cost of oil at $66 per barrel. All I can say is that I am glad that ICP underwent the metamorphous process of focusing itself. Solar is definitely the sunny future for those who carve out the right path..
Sass Peress
PS> Sure enough the markets proved me wrong with publicly listed solar companies jumping near 10% in just a week. Luckily, I didn't divest just yet :)....
Posted by sass at 10:28 PM | Comments (0)
January 13, 2006
Up, up and away....
Just when you thought prices might just stabilize, here they go again! January is the highest price level in solar in over two years, according to Solarbuzz, an industry web portal.
And yet a clear distinction must be made between grid and off-grid market pricing. The offgrid market is much more of a "retail" oriented market where price points like $19.99,$29.99,etc. are of importance to the point where pressure will be extreme before a retailer agrees to go beyond them. One such instance however just occurred with Canadian Tire, a Canadian retailer leading the push to sell solar products by big box stores, being forced to increase flexible product pricing for a CIGS product which has no relation to the silicon shortage.
How to explain this phenomenon? The only sensible explanation is that the vendor or some part of the supply chain decided to take advantage of the silicon price increases and raise prices. There is no shortage of CIGS materials which should have forced a retailer to increase pricing by up to 20%, which took product over the magical "X9.99" price points.
Now we know that there are many new entrants into the off-grid technology race coming into play in 2006 and this will force the off-grid market back down much quicker than the grid market, only because there is no regulation in the offgrid market in Europe or North America. As mentioned before, its African countries that are leading the push for IEC control over off-grid panels due to the fact that when people are depending on their solar panels for food, you don't mess around with ratings.
All to say that the expected stabilization in pricing has not yet occurred and that some are simply taking advantage rather than taking long term views. That is unfortunately the nature of the retail market where you have short term players whose only interest is bottom line immediate gain.
I frankly applaud Canadian Tire for the marvelous job their merchandise team has done in putting together such inertia behind renewable energy in Canada at retail. It started in 1994 and has really caught on in the most recent years. Hopefully the new technologies coming into play will permit the prices to come back down to levels where adoption by everyone from campers to boaters will not be hampered by price points which surpass the perceived value.
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 10:53 AM | Comments (0)
January 11, 2006
Potent PV Patent
Well well, just when the naysayers were telling us we could not get it...ICP was issued a patent today for its solar roof tile invention. This intellectual property achievement provides ICP Solar tremendous protection and opportunity in a market which to date is just beginning to be explored..integrated roof tiles for homes.
The patent relates to our Sunsei Construct Solar Slate product which we are about to get into testing for regulatory approvals after having made changes based on market feedback. And it would appear from the California situation that we are just in time to take advantage of a blooming market.
Today's news combined with the heat up in solar demand is surely good news for us all, but I must pat on the back those in our Bridgend factory who made so much happen in regards to this product and also thank Spencer Jansen and Phil Wolfe for the contributions in this regard.
With our growing bank of intellectual property (IP), the value of the innovations we have created is about to be exploited to full potential.
Regards
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 06:14 PM | Comments (0)
January 10, 2006
Like a rollin....
Too cool was tonight's Rolling Stones concert at the Bell Centre in Montreal.
We won these two front row center tickets at a breast cancer function that ICP Solar sponsors back in September. I had many offers to sell them, yet figured it was a once in a lifetime opportunity (while Jagger is getting younger, I'm not!) to see the Stones live and what a great choice I made to hang onto them.
They played a mix of old and new. While appreciating some of the new, you can't help but boogie to "Satisfaction" with extra fervor. And when Keith Richards played a new ballad, I was thinking about the Stones' brand and how they had carefully crafted it over the years, staying loyal to it and never swaying away. Cool bunch of older guys that stay in relatively good shape, have a very particular sound and consistently entertain in their own magical manner. Focus is on the music with no outlandish effects.
Tonight's concert featured a moving stage that went up and down the hall giving almost everyone a "front-row" feeling, alteit for a short while and a backlight system which was not really overstated. The focus remained on the music and entertainers (including a lovely female backup who took center stage during a Ray Charles' "Night time is the right time" remake).
Givers gain. I gave at a charity, and we received a very entertaining and memorable evening together. Oh well, tomorrow is another day of sunshine...
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 12:17 AM | Comments (0)
January 09, 2006
See-ee-sss
WOW! I go away for two weeks and come back to news of the greatest show we've ever had in Las Vegas at the recent Consumer Electronics Show.
Everyone under the sun seemed to come to our booth at the show in larger volume and with greater interest in our line of products than ever before. Nevermind we had supercharged Arlene with our supercharged team ready to answer all needs. It simply was the best result we could have hoped for.
Some competitors were so impressed with our line, they even posed for pictures with our newest creations. You could see from their looks that they knew right then and there that ICP had moved the market once again. Sunsei was a huge smash hit. Expect to see lots of press on the line in the upcoming season, particularly in the key RV and boating markets.
Solar has not yet hit the masses as it will in the next decade, but we've created something that will surely attract a whole new audience to it. Hold onto your hats, it's going to be an interesting first quarter, particularly that the demand is far outstripping supply worldwide and that is making for some strange bedfellows...
This all just goes to prove that with so much more time on my hands, I will actually finally be able to gravitate out of direct detail handling and back to the "helicopter view" that every team needs to be led into the future. Do you know what your CEO has in mind next for your company? Does he/she have a vision which you can share, eat up and be a part of? Let's just say that it was great to go through 2005 but I'm much more looking forward to 2006 in that regard.
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 06:33 PM | Comments (1)
January 08, 2006
Bueno Ano Nuevas
As some of my regular readers may have noticed, I not only fulfilled my promise to stay off the internet (well, to be honest, 90% off...) but I also did not attend the Consumer Electronics Show for the first time in 18 years of leading ICP. Two weeks in the sun playing tennis each day with my kids was just what the doctor ordered (Dr. Renee, my wife) to regain my normal breathing patterns.
Arlene and I jointly decided that she would lead the team at CES and what a marvelous job she obviously did. Not only did our client, vendor and rep partners "eat her up", I believe they also were in awe when viewing the Sunsei line in all its glory in one location.
The CES show was the most attended ever and it is apparent from initial reports, that it was a huge success. Despite a relatively poor booth placement, it was buzzing at ICP Solar all show long!
So a great set of kudos to Arlene, Randy, Earl and Lisa for a great job. 2006 is looking "mucho bueno".
Sass Peress
Posted by sass at 04:36 PM | Comments (0)